Thanksgiving is upon us and that means several films are going to get an early to earn some of your box office dollars but look at Ralph Breaks The Internet to lead the pack.
Disney is no stranger to opening titles over the Thanksgiving period and they have seen great success with a few titles during this time period. On the high-end, there’s Frozen, which made $93 million over the full Wednesday to Sunday frame ($67 million traditional weekend). On the low-end is The Good Dinosaur with a $55 million five-day ($39 million three-day). Two years ago, Moana took in $82 million ($56 million Friday to Sunday). Last year it was Coco with $72 million ($50 million three-day).
This weekend Disney sees the release of Ralph Breaks The Internet, a sequel to their 2012 hit, Wreck–It–Ralph. The film brings back the vocal stylings of John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Jack McBrayer, Jane Lynch, and Ed O’Neill while new actors behind the mic include Gal Gadot, Taraji P. Henson, and Alfred Molina. Reviews have been quite stellar for the film with a 92% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and many are saying that it appeals to kids as well as adults, which will definitely help its box office chances.
While we’re not in Incredibles 2 territory as far as expectations, Ralph is forecasted to easily break into the top spot for the Thanksgiving holiday. The original made $49 million for its start six years ago and ended up with $189 million and the time between films has allowed many kids and adults to discover the brand if they happened to miss it during its initial release. The film does have family competition from The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts & Instant Family but it should be able to stand up strongly against the pack. I’m calling a three day opening in the $60 million range and about $82 million over five days.
Our next new release is also a sequel and it’s opening on the very weekend its predecessor did back in 2015. Creed II is expected to debut strong this weekend and could end up being a crowd-pleaser in a similar way that Creed was back when it was released.
When Creed debuted three Thanksgiving weekends ago, it did so in the manner of the character who began the franchise nearly four decades prior… as an underdog. The Rocky spinoff managed to majorly defy expectations with rave reviews and even Oscar chatter for co-star Sylvester Stallone in Supporting Actor. That wave of buzz resulted in a $29 million Friday to Sunday start and $42 million total for the five-day holiday weekend and an eventual domestic gross of $109 million.
For the sequel, Michael B. Jordan is back along with Stallone, Tessa Thompson, Phylicia Rashad, and Milo Ventimiglia (reprising his role as Balboa’s son from 2006’s Rocky Balboa). And that’s not the only blast from the past as Adonis Creed is fighting the son of Ivan Drago from 1985’s Rocky IV. That means Dolph Lundgren returns with a reported appearance from Brigitte Nielsen as well. Florian Munteanu is Drago’s spawn and other new cast members include Wood Harris and Russell Hornsby.
Creed was essentially a franchise reboot of sorts back in 2015 which is part of the reason it did so well. It was a sequel of sorts to Rocky but it felt fresh and new because it wasn’t exactly what we were expecting. Creed II doesn’t have the same element of surprise but I do think that it will still perform strongly because the first film was regarded so well by audiences and critics. Jordan has certainly increased his visibility even more with his acclaimed villainous role in Black Panther and the plot of this film harkens back to one of the more well-known sequels of the Rocky franchise so that will also up its visibility with moviegoers.
The film is 80% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing which is down from the 95% fresh rating of the original but critics still think there is something to enjoy here and the fact that the sequel is fresh should go a long way with those who are interested in seeing it. A part of me doesn’t think it will open much higher than the original but it definitely will have a solid debut with about $30 million over three days and $45 million over five days.
Our next new release is Robin Hood, which is another take on the classic tale starring Taron Egerton, Jamie Foxx, Ben Mendelsohn, Jamie Dornan, Eve Hewson & Tim Minchin. It has only been a little over eight years since the last Hood landed onscreen. That was Ridley Scott’s expensive epic starring Russell Crowe. That high-profile summer movie managed to gross just over $100 million but it cost $200 million to make. Some of the bleeding was saved by overseas grosses which brought the film to $320 million worldwide by the end of its run.
While the trailer for the new Robin Hood makes the film look adequately entertaining, I’m a bit troubled by the lack of reviews so far. The film opens Wednesday and reviews still haven’t been released yet which doesn’t bode well for the studio’s confidence in the film. Taron Egerton is an up and coming star and Jamie Foxx certainly has fans but I don’t think it’s quite enough to make the film breakout in a significant way. I tried finding budget information on the film but it’s not available as of this one but the one positive thing is that it was likely cheaper to make than Ridley Scott’s $200 million take. I’m calling about $11 million for the three day period and $17 million over five days.
Our final release is the wide expansion of Green Book, which got its start in limited release last week. The Oscar hopeful got off to a decent started in its limited launch with $313,000 from 25 locations for a $12,520 per theater average. The film earned an “A+” CinemaScore and Universal Pictures is hoping that will drive word of mouth for the film as it expands to over 1,000 locations on Wednesday.
The 1960s set dramedy played at the Toronto Film Festival a couple of months back and is said to be quite the crowd pleaser. Viggo Mortensen plays the driver to Mahershala Ali’s classical pianist Don Shirley and both are likely to nab Academy nods for their work. Peter Farrelly, best known for co-directing comedies such as Dumb and Dumber and There’s Something About Mary with his brother Bobby, is behind the camera.
The film is fresh at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes and could be a choice for older audiences. I don’t expect the film to explode out of the gate but good legs could follow if audiences embrace the film after it goes wide. I’m predicting about $6 million over three days and $10 million over five days.
