He said he’ll be back and for the Terminator franchise it’s the sixth outing for an arguably dead franchise but Terminator is pulling a 2018 Halloween by disregarding all the sequels after part 2 and bringing back a franchise heroine that is likely to reinvigorate the franchise’s box office potential.
Terminator: Dark Fate, which brings the franchise back to its James Cameron roots and brings back Linda Hamilton’s Sarah Connor along with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signature cyborg, will finish at number one this weekend but what we’ll be really looking at is if this return to form will generate huge numbers. There is certainly potential to please old school fans while ushering in a new story but have fans been burned one too many times by this franchise?
Dark Fate comes off of the PG-13 Terminator: Genisys four years ago which is the lowest-grossing film of the franchise on the domestic front since the first film with $89.8 million. The $38.3 million earned by the 1984 original film made it a surprise hit back then and only set the stage for what was to come in its sequel. Genisys was also destroyed by critics who graced it with a very rotten score of 27% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even though Genisys made up ground due to its international performance ($350.8 million of its $440.6 million worldwide gross came from overseas numbers, it still pointed to the franchise having overstayed its welcome and it appeared that it was time to put this one to rest.
What has build interest with this film is that the essential ingredients to the success of the Terminator movies have returned for this entry. Cameron isn’t back on as director but he did help come up with the story and he’s back on as producer so his input is involved on some level. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Linda Hamilton have paired back up again, the latter having been absent since the 1991 sequel, Terminator 2: Judgment Day (still the highest-grossing title in the series both stateside with $205.9 million and $520.9 million worldwide). To further separate itself from the bad juju of the not so good Terminator sequels, this film is a direct sequel to Terminator 2, ignoring all the sequels after that film. 2018’s Halloween did something similar last year by disregarding all the sequels, making it a direct sequel to the 1978 original film. The move made it the highest-grossing film of the franchise to date.
Dark Fate also found a hip director in the form of Tim Miller, who directed the R-rated Marvel hit, Deadpool. Miller insisted on bringing back Terminator to its R-rated roots and this will be another ace in its sleeve as it enters this weekend’s box office because there seems to be a bit of fan service that has been missing from the sequels after T2.
Terminator: Dark Fate entered box office tracking in the $40-45 million range which isn’t bad considering the film is coming off the dismal performance of Genisys. When tracking was announced here, I said reviews and the marketing push leading up to the film could sway the numbers and we’re kind of at a mixed point on the review front. The film is 66% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes which is good but not great. It should be noted that it’s the best-reviewed film of the franchise on the site since T2 but it’s really not by much (Terminator 3 is 65% fresh). That being said, this is a fan film and early screenings have been very well-received from fans who have called it the best Terminator film since T2. If their voices are louder than critics, Dark Fate could match or exceed its box office tracking. I’m thinking fan interest is high so I’m calling an opening weekend of about $45-50 million.
There are two other wide releases this weekend, both with minor awards potential that is looking to lure in older moviegoers. Harriet, a mix of true-life/fictionally sensationalized aspects of the story of Harriet Tubman, should perform the best of the other two wide releases. Harriet is 71% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and its star, Cynthia Erivo, is getting some Oscar buzz for her performance which could pique some interest in the film. This is the kind of film that plays best over time and isn’t defined by its opening weekend but I can it starting with about $8-9 million for the weekend.
The other wide release is Motherless Brooklyn, Warner Bros’ Edward Norton-directed passion noir based on the Jonathan Lethem novel about a detective with Tourette syndrome who seeks to uncover the mystery behind his mentor’s murder. Noir is a tough sell in today’s moviegoing climate so really strong reviews were needed to really make this one stand out. The reception is merely ok with a fresh rating of 64% on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t high enough to push this one over the edge. I hear the length on this one is going to affect the box office as it’s a very slow burn at 144 minutes. The film cost $26 million to make which is a gross I doubt the film will see stateside but at least got his passion project made and released to a wide audience. I’m calling a weekend of about $6-7 million.
