Halloween comes early with the release of the highly anticipated Blumhouse Productions release, Halloween and it’s easily going to scare up a first-place finish at the box office but the real question remains: How high will this film actually go?
Fandango is already reporting that Halloween is the biggest horror pre-seller this year, besting New Line’s The Nun which opened to $53.8 million, claiming the best debut ever for a Conjuring movie. That film went on to have a $131 million global opening weekend, however, it launched in more offshore territories, numbering 60. Halloween is opening in 21 foreign markets.
Since the movie landed on tracking the R-rated pic has shown it is playing far beyond the standard older male demo and has a wide audience hooked. The film jumped into box office tracking a few weeks ago and it suggested an opening of $40 million. A couple of weeks later, the film jumped to $60 million in tracking and this week the film is tracking between $70 and $100 million. Many box-office insiders think $100 million is very possible given the hype and positive reviews which has the film fresh with an 83% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, a stellar score for a horror film.
What is very clear is that the opening will represent a franchise-best for the series. The current record holder for the franchise is Rob Zombie’s 2007 remake which opened over Labor Day weekend with $26.3 million. This is a figure that the new film could top in a single day so Jamie Lee Curtis and her team will earn bragging rights as the biggest opener and it’s bound to become the highest-grossing film overall of the series as well.
The fan in me wants to go for the $100 million opening while the other part of me wants to be more conservative with my prediction. A lot of hardcore fans think that it can open as high as It, which opened to $123.4 million and currently holds the record for the biggest opening weekend for a horror film. I think that opening is a tad ambitious but Halloween will easily claim second and I’m just going to go for it: I’m calling a $95-100 million opening for the film and a healthy life throughout the rest of October.
The only other new wide release is The Hate U Give, which has seen solid numbers in limited release the last two weeks. The critically acclaimed drama, which is currently 97% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, is an African American YA feature adaptation which finds a young girl witnessing the fatal shooting of her childhood best friend at the hands of a police officer.
The subject matter is heavy but the reviews suggest that the tone is also one of inspiration and 20th Century Fox has done a great job promoting the film, especially to the younger demographic. The solid reviews could pull in an older audience who may have normally stayed away as well. I can see this film having strong legs and I think an opening in the $9-11 million range is likely.
