Rambo: Last Blood entered box office tracking today and it looks like muscle will win out over thought-provoking sci-fi and British prestige the weekend of September 20.
Rambo: Last Blood is poised for a $24 million+ opening weekend according to initial tracking. If that tracking holds for the Sylvester Stallone starring action film, it would be a franchise-best opening, topping 1985’s Rambo: First Blood Part II ($20.1 million), 2008’s Rambo, ($18.2 million), 1988’s Rambo III ($13 million) and, of course, First Blood, which opened to No. 1 with $6.6 million at 901 theaters in March 1982.
The adult-skewing sci-fi film. Ad Astra also entered tracking and is looking good with an opening of $17.5-19 million. While that opening is good, it needs to raise its profile with great reviews because the film is budgeted at $87 million and an opening in that range, guarantees it won’t touch its budget domestically. Sci-fi can be tough sale at the box office, especially thought-provoking sci-fi but if reviews are solid it could generate solid word of mouth.
The Downton Abbey movie is also making some waves with tracking suggesting an opening between $15-16 million. That is a solid number for a period film and it could honestly surge higher if pre-sales are any indication. Fandango has reported that pre-sales for the film are higher than Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again which opened to $34.9 million last year.
No matter where these films land, tracking for the September releases suggest a pretty strong month. September is usually a dumping ground similar to August but that isn’t looking like the case this year. It: Chapter Two is shaping up for an opening on par with the original’s $123.4 million launch while Hustlers on September 13 jumped from $24 million to $26 million in recent tracking results. Also opening that weekend is The Goldfinch which is projected for $15-16 million.
