Harry Potter spinoff, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald, is expected to make a huge global debut at the box office as it should continue another solid weekend of huge openings at the multiplexes.
The second Fantastic Beasts movie which is inspired by the fictitious textbook in the J.K. Rowling mythology by monster expert Newt Scamander is even more closely aligned to Harry Potter than its 2016 predecessor, which opened to $74.4 million. The first film was well received by critics (74% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences as it went on to gross $234 million at the domestic box office and $580 million overseas.
The fact that 70% of the original’s gross came from overseas territories shows that Warner Bros. is aware that the global take is more of a factor than its domestic performance. Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them bowed to $145.5 million in 63 overseas markets at historical rates and without China and Japan. Much like the Harry Potter franchise that spawned it, Fantastic Beasts has a huge fan following all over the world.
The one minor caveat here are the reviews. The film hasn’t been as well-received by critics this go-round with a 55% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes. This could potentially turn some moviegoers off but this is a franchise that is critic-proof and as long as the film enchants fans, it should be in good shape. I think it could possibly come in lower than its predecessor but still open to a strong $70 million this weekend.
Our other new wide release is Widows, the already critically acclaimed new release from director Steve McQueen, who helmed Oscar winner, 12 Years a Slave. The film has Viola Davis leading an all-star ensemble cast that made waves at the Toronto Film Festival. The film is based on a 1983 ITV series of the same name is written by McQueen and Gillian Flynn, best known for her best-selling novel, “Gone Girl.”
Working in Widows’ favor is that it’s an action-heist drama that has a high enough pedigree to attract older audiences. The older demographic, especially lead by women, has propelled A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody to exceptional numbers and this film’s premise, which finds a group of women who attempt a heist in order to pay back a crime boss after their criminal husbands are killed on a botched job, should drive more women to embrace this film in a similar fashion. In the case of films such as this one, reviews tend to play a factor and Widows has the critics on its side with a stellar 95% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Widows is tracking between $16-20 million but I think a $25 million start is very possible.
The family crowd also has dramedy, Instant Family, to choose from this weekend. The film stars Mark Wahlberg and Rose Byrne as two parents who adopt three young children and is loosely based on the life of the film’s director, Sean Anders.
At first, I thought Instant Family wouldn’t be much of a factor this weekend, despite its cast, due to what seemed like a light promotional push, but early word is that the film is surprisingly good with several critics having embraced its charms. As of this writing, the film is 76% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and those good reviews could entice those who were on the fence before this weekend. I’m predicting about $17-20 million for the weekend.
Check back on Friday for the early Thursday preview numbers as we head into the weekend.
