We finally have a legit box office showdown as a trifecta of films looks to heat up the weekend box office. All are expected to do well in their own right but the question is how well will they actually do?
Opening Up this weekend is Fifty Shades Darker, The Lego Batman Movie & John Wick: Chapter 2. Before this weekend I would’ve gave an easy win for the weekend to Fifty Shades Darker but then I realized that the sequel will play more like counter-programming to the other two films and may have a stronger five day launch (Valentine’s Day falls on Tuesday) over an out right huge opening weekend.
The Lego Movie had a huge opening back in 2014 with a $69 million start in U.S./Canada which ended up being February’s fourth best opening. THe animated movie directed by Phil Lord and Chris Miller earned $211 millon-plus in the states $469.2M worldwide. The expectation is that this spinoff will open higher – it’s also got the benefit of kids vacations in several markets. Also working in its favor is reviews are very solid with a fresh rating of 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Lego Batman Movie has a lot working in its favor this weekend and I think that will translate to a solid $70-75 million.
This will push Fifty Shades Darker to second but some are tracking it with a $35 million weekend which seems far too low. I know the first film wasn’t entirely well received but the books still have a huge following that should show up to see the continued kinky adventures of Christian Grey.
Two years ago Fifty Shades of Grey had a record February opening of $85.1 million but it had the hype of women wanting to see their favorite novel come to life and Valentine’s Day fell on a Saturday that year which is when the film saw its healthiest gross over that weekend. Valentine’s Day falls on a Tuesday this year and advanced ticket sales are reported to be the strongest on that day for the film. The film is going to open lower than the previous installment but it may see healthy numbers as the lovers holiday approaches. The first film was extremely frontloaded as it saw a 74% decline in weekend 2 which will probably happen here but film cost $55 million to make and was shot at the same time of the next installment for cost effectiveness. Despite crummy reviews (currently rotten at 12% on Rotten Tomatoes) the film will be profitable, especially when international numbers roll in because this is a huge property abroad. I’m going to give it a $45-50 million opening because I never underestimate the female audience.
Since we have the kids and women covered, what about the men? For the fellas who have no patience for kid friendly films and neutered BDSM they’ll have John Wick: Chapter 2 to look forward to. The first film opened to $14.4 million in 2014 but it surprised everyone as it was well received and ended up grossing $85 million worldwide which was a solid start on its way to cult status. As of this writing, John Wick: Chapter 2 is the best reviewed film of the new wide releases with a solid 96% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and I think fans of the first film have been eagerly anticipating this one. I call a solid $20-22 million opening for the film and it could see strong legs if fans truly respond to it.
Check back on Monday for the final box office results and to see if my predictions were correct.
