It has finally arrived! Thursday night previews kickoff tonight for Black Panther and after weeks of breaking numerous pre-sale records, it’s time to evaluate just how high the new Marvel film will soar.
Black Panther has seen its box office tracking shift significantly as the release date loomed closer. Originally it was tracking in the $120-130 million range. Then Fandango released data about its record-breaking pre-sale numbers on its site and that shot the tracking up to $150 million. When the online embargo was lifted for the film and the reaction was resoundingly positive, the tracking shot up again to $160 million. When the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score was initially revealed it sat pretty at 100% fresh (it now sits at 97%) and that raised the tracking to a staggering $170 million. Clearly box office experts expect the film to go high and exceed expectations but I think there is a chance the film could go even higher than that.
What is setting it apart from other Marvel efforts, or any superhero movie for that matter, is its predominately African American cast. This has allowed interest to grow from a demographic that may not have been interested in these kind of films before. The narrative out there right now is that the film is a game changer for mainstream films in tems of minority casting and its ability to break box office records, a feat that some studios believe a mostly black cast can’t do. Black Panther will buck that trend in a big way and what will be more telling is how it does overseas. Studios also believe that predominatelty African American films don’t do well overseas but the awareness for this film outside the domestic market is also huge and this opening could be the start of changing the thought process when it comes to this dated outlook.
Also working in its favor is the President’s Day weekend which will see Monday grosses soar do to eveyone being off from school or work. The long holiday weekend will ensure that Black Panther dominates the frame in a big way. Also, Black Panther‘s location count, will have more than 80% 3D screens, with 400-plus Imax screens in play, 660+ premium large format screens and 200+ D-Box locations. In addition Black Panther will be the first title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to be converted to ScreenX and play in over 101 locations across eight countries including the U.S. That’s the 270-degree wraparound theater format that’s essentially today’s answer to Cinerama Dome. All of these factors are likely to boost box office numbers.
I’m going to predict that Black Panther will go as high as $180-190 million for the holiday weekend and I honestly wouldn’t be surpised if it went even higher.
