It’s always fun to see two big movies go head to head at the box office and that’s exactly what we’re getting this weekend. The two films in question couldn’t be any more different and they are definitely looking to speak to their target audience but there are some interesting factors at play that is going to make this one hell of a weekend to watch at the box office.
On one side we have the Marvel release, via Sony Pictures, Venom, the comic book adaption starring Tom Hardy. In the other corner, we have A Star Is Born, the fourth version of what has become a Hollywood classic, starring Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga. The latter film is riding high from glowing reviews that began rolling out after the Venice Film Festival and Oscar buzz is circling the movie as an early contender in a few major categories, especially for its stars Cooper and Gaga.
Venom has its own hype leading into the weekend. The anti-hero favorite is very popular in Spider-Man lore and Tom Hardy is largely considered one of the best actors of his generation. When it was announced that he was taking on the role, it was met with a very favorable response from fans and gave them hope to be optimistic about the project.
Early tracking had Venom debuting anywhere between $55-70 million. The current opening weekend record holder for the month of October is 2013’s Gravity, which opened to $55.7 million. Many industry insiders and box office tracking experts believed that Venom, being the first big tentpole release in several weeks, could smash that record and all signs pointed to it doing so but the early reaction to the film this week has put that into question,
It began when the social media embargo was lifted on Venom after its premiere. The reaction was mediocre to awful by most who saw the film early. Word of the film’s quality began to trickle in and soon after that, the review embargo was lifted and the news didn’t get any better. Venom currently sits with a very rotten score of 28% on Rotten Tomatoes which is not what a major studio wants to see from a film that is being set to start a franchise and launch Sony’s version of their Cinematic Universe featuring the Marvel characters that they own the rights to.
That doesn’t mean that Venom won’t be somewhat review-proof, at least opening weekend. There is still a curiosity factor, even if you want to check it out to see if it’s as bad as people are saying. There are some hardcore fans out there of the character and they were also vocal on social media when stating they were going to see the film despite the poor reviews. Also working in Venom’s favor is that the budget was kept modest (I’m hearing anywhere between $40-75 million) which sets a pretty low bar for success. The film is still likely to be a “hit” but its longterm goals will be solely based on fan word of mouth. I’m predicting an opening between $55-60 million.
A Star Is Born hit tracking the same day as Venom and it entered the arena with a very conservative opening of $25 million. I stated back then that I thought that was way too modest and way too low for a film that is catering to an older audience, especially an older female audience. They care about reviews and the stellar reaction the film is getting cannot be ignored. As of this writing, the film is very fresh with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and the Oscar glow is certainly strong so many will be wanting to see the film to see what all the fuss is about.
As of now, the heat is stronger with the over 25 female crowds and isn’t skewing too young at this point. Despite Lady Gaga being a huge international music star, she isn’t the same pop icon she once was when she started out by cranking out dance hit after dance hit. Don’t get me wrong, she’s still very popular, but she has chosen a route in recent years that showcases her raw talent rather than trying to top the charts. The younger crowd may be convinced to check the film out as more people talk fondly about it. We should also not count out Bradley Cooper who is also popular in his own right and will play a major role with the film bringing in a solid female audience.
All signs point to A Star Is Born having a much larger opening than anticipated and one thing is for sure: It will have a much healthier run than Venom in the long run. A Star Is Born is starting its world tour this weekend but word of mouth will ensure that it will get many encores in the weeks ahead. I’m predicting an opening in the $40 million range and I wouldn’t be surprised if it surged higher.
