Toy Story 4 will have a pretty easy go at it when it comes to maintaining the number one spot at the box office before Spider-Man: Far From Home arrives next week but Annabelle Comes Home should put up solid numbers as well.
A lot was made of Toy Story 4’s opening weekend even though it came in at a robust $120.9 million. Projections had it as high as $160 million and I was one of many who predicted it would land there due to the great reviews and general love for the franchise. Sequelitis has been a big story for this summer’s box office due to underwhelming box office numbers from would be big tentpole pictures and many thought this affected Toy Story 4 but now that the dust has settled, perhaps it was out own bloated expectations that made us think Toy Story 4 was going to soar higher. Many thought it was going to come close to the opening of Incredibles 2 which came in at $182.6 million but the two films, despite being beloved Pixar brands, are very different. Toy Story is on its fourth entry while moviegoers had to wait 14 years for Incredibles 2 which is why that opening surged as high as it did.
Word of mouth for Toy Story 4 has been incredible so maybe moviegoers that sat out last weekend will partake in weekend two. Honestly, Toy Story 4 is going to benefit from this weekend and the long holiday weekend next week so I predict some solid weekday numbers after this weekend is all said and done. I’m calling a weekend two gross of about $65 million.
Toy Story 4 competed with a creepy doll last weekend with the release of Child’s Play and now it will face/off against another evil doll with the release of Annabelle Comes Home. This is the third Annabelle film and yet another entry in the very lucrative Conjuring universe that has grossed $1.690 billion worldwide. In the summer of sequelitis, one would think this franchise would be a victim of it since we had The Nun back in September, then in May came The Curse of La Llorona, which while not part of The Conjuring technically (except for the character of Father Perez) was positioned and marketed “from the producers of The Conjuring universe.” Sequelitis doesn’t seem to affect horror films very much and even La Llorona, which had a peripheral connection to the universe, grossed an impressive $127 million worldwide on a $9 million budget.
The interesting thing about the Annabelle spinoffs is that the quality has improved since the first film. The one that started it all garnered a very rotten 29% on Rotten Tomatoes and still grossed $256.8 million worldwide. The prequel, Annabelle: Creation, fared much better with critics (70% fresh) and it carried a dismal August box office back in 2017 with a $35 million opening and a $102 million final domestic tally ($306.5 million worldwide). Annabelle Comes Home comes down a bit critically (65% fresh) but it’s relatively close to the reception of Creation which should bode well for audience expectations.
Annabelle Comes Home opened in Tuesday night previews to $3.5 million before going wide Wednesday and that’s a solid start, especially for a horror film having previews fall on Tuesday night. This film will be more about the long haul rather than just the opening weekend so this will be one we have to watch daily. I’m calling about $35 million for its Wednesday-Sunday gross and a second place finish.
Universal is trying out some counterprogramming with Danny Boyle’s Yesterday, which has Himesh Patel playing a man who goes through an accident and awakes in a world where no one has heard of the Beatles. He begins to sing all their songs and becomes a huge recording artist. The film is written by Richard Curtis, who gifted us the ultimate romantic comedy in the form of Love, Actually. The film closed out the Tribeca Film Festival and has garnered significant word of mouth due to solid preview screenings but critics are only so-so on the film at 66% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The appeal of the music of the Beatles should be a selling point and the film being a musical may actually appeal to the female audience it’s seeking. I’m predicting about $11 million for the weekend.
