Perhaps the most interesting time at the box office is the period of mid-December through the first few weeks of the new year. There are winners and losers during the long holiday box office but most of the films play strongly and usually leg it out to MLK weekend if the movie is strong enough. Just look at last year’s Jumanji: Welcome To the Jungle which dominated the MLK weekend with $27 million after opening right before Christmas. In fact, 58% of Jumanji’s $404.5 million domestic final gross came in 2018 which shows how long a really good film can run when it’s released right before Christmas.
This is the first year that Star Wars film won’t be in play since The Force Awakens flexed its December muscle back in 2015. This was followed by Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in 2016 and then The Last Jedi in 2017. Despite the presence of Star Wars in 2017, Jumanji was able to share in the December dominance and it showed that there can be more than one winner during the December frame. Even The Greatest Showman, which seemed DOA when it opened to $8 million, became another choice for families and women as it became one of the leggiest movies of all-time with a final gross of $174.3 million.
The lack of a Star Wars film allows several films this holiday season to earn some bragging rights. Between last weekend and Christmas, ten wide releases carrying a combined near production cost of $913 million will vie for business at the box office and now it’s just a matter of who will win and who will lose?
Getting a jump on business today is Mary Poppins Returns, the sequel to the 1964 film which stars Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda. The film is poised for a healthy life at the box office because films like this work especially well during this period and it’s an awards player thanks to Emily Blunt and a Golden Globe nomination for Best Musical or Comedy. Some think that an Oscar nomination for Best Picture is also in the cards which will likely boost the box office. The film will likely be the prime choice for women, much like The Greatest Showman was last year and it will certainly ride on a sense of nostalgia for the original. There are a couple of caveats that may be an issue and that is, despite being a Disney film, a lot of children today aren’t fully aware of the original film so a part of me thinks it won’t be the top choice for them. I think Bumblebee or even Aquaman may pull in more of that audience and they may have to share those views equally. Another tiny concern is that, while the film is fresh at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, some thought the reviews would be a tad better given the early awards hype. These caveats won’t make the film fail by any means but it might play into the film not overly dominating the next few weeks. That being said, from Wednesday to Tuesday of next week (Christmas Day) I think Mary Poppins Returns will earn about $75 million to kick things off.
Even though Disney gets the early start, Aquaman may be the one to watch this holiday season. The DC film begins previews Thursday at 5 PM and will play in 3,300 locations backed with the power of Imax. Fandango reports that Aquaman is surging ahead of Wonder Woman in pre-sales but there is a difference in their openings given that Wonder Woman opened during the summer. For Aquaman, it’s not all about how it starts, it’s about how its legs out and all signs point to it legging out pretty well. Reviews aren’t out of this world with a 69% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing but this may be a case where reviews may not be too much of a factor. Jason Momoa seems to be an action star that the people want to see and the bigger story rather than so-so reviews is that Aquaman has already launched to impressive numbers overseas. The film has grossed north of $266.4 million at the overseas box office with China repping 71% of that figure. For a film that cost $200 million to make, this is the start it needed to justify the money spent and so far Aquaman is set up to be a big success. I’m calling $70 million for the three-day portion of the weekend and about $120 million by Christmas Day.
Next up we have the wildcard in Bumblebee, a prequel/spinoff of the Transformers film franchise that is actually the best-reviewed film of the new releases at 93% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. The great reviews make it a wildcard because before the film was set to be released, I think many thought this would be more of the same robot action with no heart but critics are saying this a solid coming of age story and it doesn’t skimp on the action as well. Previews start at 5 PM on Thursday and Bumblebee is likely to benefit from solid word of mouth rather than a huge opening weekend. I think it will be the most interesting film to pay attention to because I expect it to eventually surge ahead of most expectations. For now, I’m calling $25 million for the three-day portion and $40 million by Christmas.
On the lower side of things is Jennifer Lopez’s Second Act which was never expected to dominate the period but the film was cheap at $15.7 million to make so it would need to absolutely crater in order to not be a modest hit. The film is rotten at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing but the reviews were much better than anticipated so I don’t think Second Act will be a failure by any means. The film is the romantic comedy choice for women which could allow it to overindex as well as interest from African American and Hispanic demos. I’m calling about $10-13 million for the three-day portion of the weekend and possibly $17 million by Christmas Day.
The last of the releases to open before Christmas Day is Welcome to Marwen which looks like it may be a financial misfire in the same way that Mortal Engines was last weekend. Robert Zemeckis directs the $40 million fantasy/drama starring Steve Carell and while it’s not a $100-150 million film like Mortal Engines, interest in the film seems too low and it may struggle to make back its budget, even with the normal holiday inflation. There are no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing which isn’t a good sign and this is the kind of film that could be aided if reviews happen to be good. All signs are pointing in a negative direction so I’m calling about $6 million for the three-day portion and maybe about $9-10 million by Christmas Day.
Opening on Christmas Day is Holmes & Watson starring Will Ferrell & John C. Reilly and Oscar contender, Vice starring Oscar winner Christian Bale as former Vice President Dick Cheney. Films that open on Christmas Day usually perform well because Christmas is actually a big box office day and I think both films will at least start off well on the day. No reviews yet for Holmes & Watson but the comedic duo of Ferrell and Reilly is liked by most fans so I think a $5 million Christmas Day start is possible.
As for Vice, I think all of the awards attention will drive it to be somewhat of a success but its rated lowly fresh at Rotten Tomatoes at 66% which is surprising considering the awards love it has gotten before its release. This will be one that people will see just to see Bale’s transformation and it definitely looks more like an actor’s movie more than anything else so that may allow it to overcome mixed reviews. I’m calling about $4 million on Christmas Day.
