If there is one thing that is for certain about the December box office when a Star Wars film is in play, is that it will definitely dominate the last few weeks of the calendar year. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is the final part of the Skywalker saga and it’s set to have a plethora of fans wanting to see how it all ends.
The interesting thing about the trajectory on The Rise of Skywalker is that it’s pretty much in line with the previous film, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, in almost every single way. Reports say advance ticket sales have leveled out to about the same range as The Last Jedi and early estimates for its Thursday preview numbers have it in the $43-44 million range (The Last Jedi started with $45 million in previews). I think these initial similar comparisons have to do with the fan response to The Last Jedi. Critics loved Rian Johnson’s bold take on the Star Wars saga (91% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) but the fan reaction was far harsher (it has been two years since its release and the Rotten Tomatoes audience score is at a dismal 43%). Some fans will take a wait and see approach when it comes to Rise of Skywalker although early signs show that they like the conclusion much more than the middle chapter (audience score currently since at 86% as of Thursday preview night).
The critical reviews on The Rise of Skywalker are quite the opposite of The Last Jedi. As of this writing, the film is rotten on Rotten Tomatoes with 58%. The initial response out of the Hollywood premiere the other night was that some who were attendance thought the new film fixed whatever issues fans had with The Last Jedi but once the reviews began pouring out, it was clear critics were less enthused. If we’re keeping track, this is the lowest score on Rotten Tomatoes for a Star Wars film since The Phantom Menace back in 1999 which logged 53%.
If we all remember back to May of 1999, we know that a Star Wars film is virtually critic-proof because The Phantom Menace was a huge hit and actually benefitted from repeat viewings (some say those viewings were to check and see if it was really as bad as most thought it was). Even if that was the case, and I don’t it was, the Star Wars brand is virtually unstoppable because of its fans. Even the fans who make it their job to complain about story direction or the film’s not going the way they see fit, turn out for Star Wars merely to hate-watch. The fandom is strong with this one and The Rise of Skywalker, despite the mixed reviews, will follow suit when it comes to making big end of the year money. I’m predicting an opening of about $200-230 million.
Elsewhere in multiplexes, Universal Pictures is unleashing Cats upon us and the film adaptation of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s hit Broadway musical is either about to be a huge bomb or is on the road being the film this season that looks so bad you have to see it. Cats has been the subject of attention since the release of its first trailer which showcased just how weird the performers looked mixed with CGI to make them look like human-like cat hybrids (definitely not a sentence I thought I’d ever type). The reaction has only gotten more visceral since then and it hit a fever pitch once critics weighed in. The film currently sits with a very rotten score of 19% on Rotten Tomatoes and that’s usually a death sentence for a film like this but there are some out there that think musical theater fans and those suffering from morbid curiosity could actually allow this to play well during the holiday season. Part of me thinks that it could get some butts in the seats before it craters so I’m going to predict an opening of about $15 million and from there it will be one of the more interesting films to watch during the December box office.
Bombshell expands this weekend after it debuted last week with a robust $76,800 per screen at just four theaters. The film, starring Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie about the women who take on Fox News boss Roger Ailes, is an awards player despite the somewhat muted critical response (65% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Most of the attention is for the film’s three leads, particularly Theron who is a sure bet for a Best Actress Oscar nomination. A similar thing happened to Vice last year which scored a 66% score on Rotten Tomatoes but was a big part of the awards conversation as well. Bombshell won’t be huge out of the gate but it’s definitely going to play well with the older audience, especially women, as the days progress. I’m predicting a start of about $8-10 million.
