The last big studio release of the year has finally hit box office tracking. Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker is going to be the biggest player of the December box office as we head into the new year and now we have some indication of how big it might actually be on opening weekend.
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker entered box office tracking this morning with a potential opening of $175-200 million when it hits screens on December 20. This is on par with the early readings for both Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The release and anticipation for both films were a tad different. In December of 2015, The Force Awakens was coming off the stench of the polarizing prequels but there was this sense of a return to form for the franchise with the return of Harrison Ford and Carrie Fisher. This allowed the film to score a then-record domestic opening of $248 million.
In 2017, The Last Jedi seemed poised to possibly eclipse that number but the film, which was lauded by critics, was met with a more mixed reaction from fans which made the film gross a still stellar $220 million on its opening weekend. No one is calling that a failure by any means but it does show the power of the instant Twitter review by the end of the opening night which can sway opinion and dictate box office.
This is why Lucasfilm and Disney are managing expectations for The Rise of Skywalker. Not only are they dealing with the polarizing reaction to The Last Jedi, but they’re also dealing with a more volatile box office that has seen big studio films come in below expectations. Skywalker also faces competition from Jumanji: The Next Level but I think the December box office allows room for all players to play in the same playing field so it won’t be too much of a factor.
“Deadline” is reporting that advanced ticket sales for Skywalker are strong but not overly robust in comparison to The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. Atom Tickets reported that the first day sales of Skywalker back on October 21 were their second-best ever, however, they’re a much younger ticket retailer than Fandango, and represent a small portion of overall presales next to AMC, Regal, Cinemark, and other major outlets.
The Rise of Skywalker is the ninth and final installment in the George Lucas-created series, another factor that could allow the film to surge beyond its tracking. I’m thinking the film comes in closer to the opening of Thr Last Jedi but we’ll officially find out when the film hits screens on December 20.
