Dumbo came in below expectations last weekend but two new releases look to buck that trend and possibly enter the box office arena above their initial tracking.
Easily taking the number one spot will be Shazam!, the latest release from DC which has seen a bit of a turnaround in box office and quality after the release of Wonder Woman and Aquaman. Shazam! is described as Big set in the comic-book world and centers on Billy Baston (Asher Angel), a teenager who transforms into a superhero that has a body of a 30-something (Zachary Levi) but still Asher’s teenage sensibilities. It all sounds a bit silly on paper but early word on the film has been nothing short of stellar and critics seem to love it as well as it carries a 93% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
If there is anything that could prevent a massive opening for Shazam! it would be casual moviegoers not really knowing anything about the character. Shazam! isn’t exactly an A-list property along the lines of Batman or Superman so one might question how much actual awareness of the character is out there. To overcome this obstacle, Shazam! has good reviews on it side and advanced screenings also produced positive feedback, which could lead to solid word of mouth. The concept should also appeal to kids in a big way if they’re open to it so there is potential for Shazam! to be a longterm hit. The film has already earned $3 million from advanced screenings through a partnership with Fandango, which actually outperformed that same advanced screening partnership that Aquaman used back in December. I’m calling $50-55 million for the opening weekend.
Counterprogramming comes in the form of Pet Sematary, the remake to the 1989 film of the same named, based on the novel by Stephen King. The film follows a family who, upon moving to rural Maine, discovers their new home is located near a mysterious burial ground that sets off a chain of horrific events. Pet Sematary originally seemed like your run of the mill horror remake but, much like Shazam!, the film has gotten stellar early notices from advanced screenings and critics are digging it too. It currently has an 81% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes which is practically an “A” grade for horror. I honestly don’t think the Shazam! audience and the Pet Sematary audience are too similar so there will be room for both films to do well. Also helping is that any Stephen King brand is also hot due to the success of 2017’s It and since this is another familiar title, audience awareness is there to make Sematary a hit. Pet Sematary does have to deal with the third weekend of Jordan Peele’s US, which will take some of the horror crowd, but I think Pet Sematary will be just fine in the end. I’m predicting an opening of about $30 million.
The last new wide release is The Best of Enemies starring Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell. The film has them starring as a civil rights activist and a KKK leader forced to work together to settle a court-ordered school desegregation decree. The film is based on a true story and should get some attention for its stars but this initially seemed like it was poised as some kind of Oscar-bait but there are no reviews as of this writing and there hasn’t been a ton of promotion for the film. I still think an opening in the $6-8 million range is possible which is ok considering its slim $10 million budget.
