Despite a holiday weekend on the horizon, a crop of so-so releases will prevent the weekend from making a huge impact. The Lego Batman Movie should remain on top while it will be a bit of a pile up for the remaining top five.
When focusing on the new releases, Fist Fight, a comedy with Ice Cube and Charlie Day as feuding teachers, has the biggest chance of breaking out. It has the comedy playing field to itself and its rather slim budget of $22 million should allow it to be profitable for the studio. I’m predicting about $17 million for the film but it could go a bit higher if moviegoers are seeking something truly funny.
The Great Wall should perform second best of the new releases but its domestic performance is going to be lacking no matter what. The film is an elaborate action-adventure with Matt Damon and some monsters incongruously popping up in the midst of China’s Song Dynasty and that has allowed it to be a bit of a success story already overseas with a gross of $171 million so far. The problem is the film cost $150 million to make and it’s not generating huge buzz on the domestic front. It may not suffer greatly due to overseas grosses in the end but a $15-16 million start is in store for the film and it may not experience much legs after that.
That leaves us with A Cure For Wellness, which generated some headlines this week due to its marketing strategy of using fake news to promote the film. This won’t be enough to do much for film because awareness still seems on the low end and its entering a pretty crowded marketplace. The film,which centers on a young executive (Dane DeHaan) whose trip to retrieve the company’s CEO from a shadowy spa in the Swiss Alps leads to a shocking discovery, carries a $40 million budget but it won’t see that gross stateside and may only see a $6-8 million start this weekend.
Mixed in this barrage of films, we have the second weekends for Fifty Shades Darker & John Wick: Chapter Two. The former film had a solid Valentine’s Day on Tuesday with $11 million but the day for lovers is probably where the good news for the film ends. It’s going to take a tumble in week two but the question is how much? The word of mouth on this one is better than the first film believe it or not so it probably won’t see the harsh 74% fall of its predecessor. It’s still going to lose over half of its weekend one gross however which should have it come in at about $16.5 million. John Wick will fare better and I think it will see a so-so decline due to competition from new releases but then rebound in the weeks ahead. I’m predicting about $18 million for week two.
Check back on Monday for the official box office results!
