Whether people like it or not, Boo 2! A Madea Halloween will be the number one movie in America this weekend and could possibly dominate the rest of October, depending on if people are really clamoring to visit Jigsaw again next week.
Similar to the same weekend last year, it’s a crowded weekend because distributors vie to get a leg up on the weekend before Halloween as moviegoing generally calms down during that period with the exception of horror films, and Lionsgate has their Saw reboot Jigsaw opening then as well. Boo! last year marked Perry’s return to the big screen after a two-year break, and he rallied strong with a film that posted a $28M opening, beating of all things a Tom Cruise sequel Jack Reacher : Never Go Back ($22.8M). Boo! played to a broad audience of African Americans, Hispanic and Asian crowds and even played younger than the typical Perry movie. It resonated so much that it even played beyond its Halloween holiday with a 2.6 multiple, or $73.2M by the end of its run. Similar to the firsts Boo!, the sequel carries a production cost in the low-$20M range.
This is a film that critic proof and even though people like to talk down on Tyler Perry, the majority of his films open well and nearly all of them make a tidy profit because they’re relatively cheap to make. He has found a formula and it has proven to work time and time again. I think the sequel will come in slightly less than it predecessor but not by much. I’m calling about $25 million for the weekend.
Also opening is the highly expensive Geostorm which carries an $120 million budget and allegedly had to shoot $15 million worth of reshoots. The disaster movie marks the directorial debut of disaster genre producer Dean Devlin and the whole thing just feels a bit dated. Disaster films were once a hot commodity at the box office but I think you have to go back to the film 2012 in 2009 to find the last film in this genre that actually performed well. Warner Bros is not showing Geostorm to critics and there aren’t Thursday night shows despite the fact other studios like Sony and Lionsgate are holding previews for their movies. Studio hopes that grey clouds will show some sunshine on this movie abroad: Geostorm came in soft in eight Asian markets with $9.7M last weekend despite being No. 1 in eight small Asian markets. The pic hits 50 additional overseas markets this week including Germany, Russia, Korea, Brazil, Australia, Spain, the UK and Mexico. Here’s the rub: When the movie opens in China on October 27 against Blade Runner 2049, rival foreign distrib chiefs expect Geostorm to win in a big way as it’s the type of movie more suited for the Middle Kingdom than sophisticated sci-fi epics. It’s going to need all the help it can get because I’m guessing this will open in the $10-12 million range and then fade pretty quickly
Also opening is The Snowman, which look promising early on but has taken a beating from critics who have seen early screenings. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently at 26% rotten, but the hope is that goes up after last night’s all-media screening in Hollywood. The film stars Michael Fassbender, Rebecca Ferguson, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Val Kilmer and Oscar winner J.K. Simmons and was directed by Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy‘s Tomas Alfredson. Movie follows an elite crime squad’s lead detective (Fassbender) who investigates the disappearance of a victim on the first snow of winter. He fears an elusive serial killer may be active again. With the help of a brilliant recruit (Ferguson), the cop must connect decades-old cold cases to the brutal new one if he hopes to outwit this unthinkable evil before the next snowfall. We haven’t had a legit thriller in the marketplace in awhile and it opening in October could help but since the film is skewing older, the harsh reviews could hurt its overall chances. I’m predicting about $8-10 million for the weekend and it could be in a close race with Geostorm if that film underperforms.
Lastly there is, Only the Brave which currently carries a 95% fresh Rotten Tomatoes. Sony is handling the film for the Black Label Media $38M-financed movie a and is on the hook for P&A. The Josh Brolin-Miles Teller movie isn’t expected to do much, especially since there hasn’t been a ton of awareness for the film. There is a philanthropic initiative for the film, The Granite Mountain Fund, set up to drive donations to support firefighting in small towns and families of first responders. So lets call it a $6 million opening and some coin for a good cause.
Check back Monday for the final box office results!
