As we patiently wait for Avengers: Infinity War to be unleashed upon us, the box office will look pretty healthy this weekend as new releases and a couple of holdovers should do solid business.
Dwayne Johnson is back to conquer the weekend box office with Rampage, based on the 1980s arcade game of the same name. Despite last summer’s hiccup Baywatch, the former wrestler has proven to be one of the most reliable box office stars working today. He was one of many factors that turned Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle into Sony’s biggest domestic release of all-time and his fanbase should come out in droves for his latest potential franchise.
Rampage is helmed by Brad Peyton, who directed Johnson in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island and San Andreas. The latter became a surprise summer hit in 2015 when it opened to $54.5 million before grossing $155.1 million domestically and $473.9 million worldwide. The film carried a budget of $110 million and insiders say the film netted an $88.1 million profit when it was all said and done. San Andreas definitely got a push from worldwide numbers and that same is likely to happen to Rampage, which carries a budget of $115-120 million. Rampage moved up its release date when Avengers: Infinity War moved into April so that gives the film two full weeks to dominate before that film devours all the competition. Reviews came in as expected with a 46% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing but test screenings were allegedly very strong so this one may very well be critic-proof. I’m predicting about $35-40 million for the weekend.
Rampage will push A Quiet Place down to second but it should post a solid second weekend showing due to positive word of mouth and what will likely be a very strong Friday due to the horror-friendly date of Friday the 13th. I’m predicting about $30-32 million for the weekend, which would push the $17 million film beyond the $100 million mark.
Another title likely to benefit from the Friday the 13th opening day is Truth or Dare, the latest microbudget horror film from Blumhouse. The film stars Lucy Hale and Tyler Posey and is about a “Truth or Dare” game that goes sideways when something begins to punish those who tell a lie or refuse the dare. Reviews aren’t great as of this writing (25% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) but the marketing has really popped with the younger crowd and its PG-13 rating will bring out the younger demo, especially the younger female crowd that typically turns films like this into hits on opening weekend. Some think that there isn’t room for two horror films on Friday the 13th but A Quiet Place is appealing to the older horror lovers while Truth or Dare is skewing younger. I think there is room for both films this weekend and while Truth or Dare may tumble in the weeks ahead, the film carries a $3.5 million budget and will clear that after opening night. I’m predicting about $18-20 million for the weekend.
Lastly, Blockers, which had a solid opening for an R-rated comedy last weekend, should hold well this weekend due to positive word of mouth as well. This benefitted Game Night for weeks and the same fortune should be bestowed upon this film as well. I’m predicting about $14 million for weekend two.
Check back on Monday for the final box office results!
