Merry Christmas Reel Talkers! We have three new films entering an already crowded Christmas marketplace today so it’s time to see where they may be headed in terms of their opening weekends. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will continue to dominate but there may just be enough for these films to thrive as well.
Likely to perform the best of the three new releases is Little Women, Greta Gerwig’s PG-rated revisionist tale starring Emma Watson, Saoirse Ronan, Laura Dern, Florence Pugh, Eliza Scanlen, Timothée Chalamet, Bob Odenkirk and Tracy Letts. Little Women has been adapted for the big and small screen on many occasions but Gerwig’s take has been given major kudos for finding some originality in the story and bringing her own unique to it. The film has received stellar reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it also has some awards potential as well. Little Women to date counts two Golden Globe nominations (Best Actress – Drama for Saoirse Ronan, Best Original Score for Alexandre Desplat), a Supporting Actress nom for Laura Dern from the New York Film Critics Circle (also in response to Netflix’s Marriage Story), and nine Critics’ Choice nominations including Best Picture.
The film was snubbed by SAG and Greta Gerwig was one of many capable female directors that weren’t nominated for a Golden Globe this year, which sparked some headlines when nominations were announced a couple of weeks ago. The film still has a chance to score some Oscar nominations and with Cats crashing and burning at the box office, this may be the top choice for women and older audiences while its relatively fresh cast could attract the younger crowd as well. I’m predicting an opening of about $20 million over five days.
Spies in Disguise is hoping to get a piece of the family film pie that is being taken up by Star Wars and Jumanji: The Next Level. The movie from directors Nick Bruno and Troy Quane, follows a spy (Will Smith) who is turned into a pigeon and he’s forced to rely on his nerdy tech officer (Tom Holland). Rashida Jones, Ben Mendelsohn, Reba McEntire, Rachel Brosnahan, Karen Gillan, DJ Khaled, and Masi Oka are also part of the voice-over cast. The hope is that the film will appeal to young boys who may have seen Star Wars and Jumanji already and are looking for another fun film to watch over the holiday. Reviews for the animated film are decent at 71% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and that could be enough to convince parents to see it who may have been a bit reluctant. I’m predicting $20-25 million over five days.
Next up is the expansion of Uncut Gems, starring Adam Sandler as a 47th Street NYC jeweler who lives on the edge as he comes into possession of some rare African stones. The film has been playing in five theaters in New York and Los Angeles over the past 12 days, where it has pulled in $1.08 million to date. Uncut Gems has been a bit of an awards player with Adam Sandler pulling in career-best reviews for his portrayal in the film. The film pulled in four Critics’ Choice nominations including Best Picture and Best Actor, five Spirit Awards nominations including Best Feature, and wins from the National Board of Review for Best Actor and original screenplay (from the Safdie Brothers and Ronald Bronstein). The NY Film Critics named the Safdies as best director as well. With films like Richard Jewell coming in below expectations two weeks ago, the older male demographic could gravitate towards this film while younger males may also be interested in seeing Sandler take on a very different role. Helping matters is the film’s 93% fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes which will definitely appeal to the older crowd as well. I’m predicting about $13 million over five days.
