Todd Phillips’ Joker has become a surprise, and apparently polarizing, awards contender with star Joaquin Phoenix getting high praise for his performance and it looks like the film is also going to be a box office contender as well if box office tracking is any indication.
Box office tracking has it debuting in the $82-90 million range when it opens on October 4. The film is the first choice among all audiences in the low 20s among moviegoers that exceeded a mix of both superhero movies and R-rated fare including Batman v. Superman, Suicide Squad, It, It Chapter Two, Logan, Venom, Halloween, Us, John Wick Chapter 3 and more. Looking at the openings of all those films which start in the low $50 million range to over $100 million, Joker is in some exceptional company.
Adding to the appeal of Joker is despite some critics derailing its initial Rotten Tomatoes Score (the film began in the 88% range and now sits at 78%), the film is clearly going to be a player this awards seasons and likely in more categories than just Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix. The film won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and it was a huge crowd-pleaser at the Toronto International Film Festival. Moviegoers want to see this R-rated take on a character that is probably one of the most popular comic book villains of all-time.
The real prize for the month of October is the opening weekend record which was claimed by Venom just last year when it opened to $80.2 million. Tracking suggests Joker will exceed that but tracking is can go either way sometimes with estimates that are too high or estimates that are too low. There are some concerns about the R-rating but It: Chapter Two just cleared a $90 million opening last weekend and if we’re looking at October, Halloween scored a $76.2 million opening last year with an R-rating so that may not be a factor whatsoever. Comparing R-rated comic book films, Deadpool leads the way with $132.4 million followed by Deadpool 2 ($125.5 million), Logan ($88.4 million), 300 ($70.9 million) and Watchmen ($55.2 million).
Honestly, it’s going to come down to fanboy response and the film’s appeal to those who don’t actively seek out comic book movies. The latter looks to have some luck on its side because the film plays out in realistic means and it may make people forget it’s even attached to a comic book brand. According to critics, the film has shades of Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver and King of Comedy which is likely to appeal to older moviegoers. The film is skewing heavily male and although the female audience has proven to be very important at the box office, I think the film skewing more male won’t hurt matters either.
I guess we’ll find out when Joker opens on October 4.
