Super Bowl weekend isn’t the box office death trap that some think it is. The big game does cut into Sunday’s box office but over the last ten years, we have had seven films open north of $20 million over Super Bowl weekend, which is impressive considering how big of an event it is.
We’re only getting two major releases this weekend and they are Rings and The Space Between Us. I’ve been struggling to try to figure out where Rings will land this weekend since horror films can surprise and defy expectations on opening weekend but Split is still going strong as it heads into week three so is there even room for Rings break out?
The first Ring was released by DreamWorks and directed by Gore Verbinski in October 2002. It was a huge sleeper hit, debuting to $15 million and earning an impressive final gross, especially considering the average opening, of $129.1 million at the domestic box office. The Ring Two, which was directed by the original Japanese Ring director Hideo Nakata, opened in March 2005 and posted a first weekend of $35 million which ranks among the top 10 horror film openings. It had a horrendous word of mouth however and grossed $76.2 million by the end of its run.
Rings has had a few release date delays and a part of me is wondering we’re people even asking for another installment? It has been over ten years between films and the brand isn’t nearly as strong as it once was. I don’t think it’s claiming the top spot but should gross anywhere between $13-14 million for the weekend.
The Space Between Us is essentially counterprogramming for young girls who aren’t interested in the Super Bowl and it might work a bit in its favor, at least on opening weekend. The film was originally slated to open over Christmas which may have been a bit too crowded for the film. It won’t have much-staying power but the film could attract its target audience over opening weekend with about $8-10 million. The upside? STX’s share of the $30 million production cost was less than $3.7M after foreign licensing, tax credits and co-financing.
So where does that leave Split? I honestly think it spends another weekend at number one with about $15-16 million. I wouldn’t have called it like that before it opened about three weeks ago but after the slim drop last weekend, I think it’s hitting a nerve with people seeing it and Rings isn’t big enough of a threat to take its horror crown.
Check back on Monday when the final results are in and see how close my predictions are!
