The January box office got a bit of a jolt last week with the release of Glass over MLK weekend but it wasn’t as big of a jolt as some anticipated. On its side is that it should easily stay number one this weekend but how well it holds is another story.
Glass hasn’t received the same negative response from audiences that critics graced it will before it opened but its “B” CinemaScore also doesn’t suggest that’s it’s destined to be a big word of mouth hit. A quick scan on Twitter will tell you that even the audience reaction is a bit divisive but it also has its fans as well. Back in 2017, Split fell 36% in its second weekend and I honestly think the drop for Glass will be higher. Split was something fresh and new from Shyamalan back in 2017 and it rode on the word of mouth that audiences were surprised that it was actually good. Glass is likely to play like most sequels which open higher (in this case only slightly) and then fall off a bit faster than their predecessors. I’m predicting about $20-23 million for the weekend.
Our first new wide release is The Kid Who Would Be King, a juvenile rendering of the King Arthur tale from director Joe Cornish. Originally I thought this film looked pretty terrible and maybe D.O.A. but the reviews have been pretty decent so far (83% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) and kids don’t really have anything new to see at the movies so there is room for the film to have a decent opening at the box office. It doesn’t have enough mainstream appeal to really break out but perhaps word of mouth can get it beyond this weekend if it’s really good. I predict an opening between $10-12 million.
Our last new release is Serenity, starring Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway. In the film, the mysterious past of a fishing boat captain comes back to haunt him when his ex-wife tracks him down with a desperate plea for help that leads to circumstances that aren’t as they appear. Serenity was set to be released last October and actually looked like a bit of Oscar bait based on its cast (in addition to the leads, the film co-stars Diane Lane, Jason Clarke, Djimon Hounsou, and Jeremy Strong) but the film was suddenly moved to January and after this, the promotion on the film has been pretty dead. The review embargo lifts today which is never a good sign when they hold it until the very last minute. I will say the trailer looks good and the cast is top notch so it’s hard for me to believe that it’s that much of a misfire but the lack of promotion is concerning and it looks like the studio just wants to dump it and forget about it. Unless this suddenly becomes the thriller of the year, I’m predicting about $6-8 million for the weekend.
