There are less than two weeks remaining in 2017 and the box office is about to heat up in a big way to end the year right. 2017 was an unorthodox box office year. We had a summer that largely underperformed and then a September, which is normally a down box office month, that saw record numbers due to big openers like It and Kingsman: The Golden Circle. The holiday season is currently pacing about 13.5% higher than the year before and with six new wide releases opening between today and Christmas (with other limited releases also expanding) it should ensure that the 2017 box office sees another year that will cross $11 billion for the third year in a row.
There is no question that Star Wars: The Last Jedi will likely rule the last couple of weeks of 2017. I will discuss more on its prospects this weekend after we take a look at some of the new releases that will be vying for your attention. There are a lot of diverse offerings and there should be room for just about all of them but that doesn’t mean each film will start off huge. The month of a December is a marathon and not a sprint. There is time for just about all these movies to have legs as we head into 2018.
The first of our new releases, and likely to be the best performer of the bunch, is Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. I wouldn’t have called this a couple of months ago but this sequel/not sequel/reboot/not reboot received a warm reception from early screenings and it’s holding up well with critics (80% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing). The film debuts in 3,765 today and has already secured about $2 million from advanced screenings on Friday, December 8 in 1,200 locations. The screenings were made available to Amazon Prime members only and the success of those showings suggests incredible interest. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is competing for the family and young adult crowd with Star Wars: The Last Jedi mostly but I think there is room for both of these films to coexist and not completely polarize each other. I think the film could clear $65-70 million over its first six days (Wednesday-Monday, Christmas Day) and there will be much more to come as many people are on break from school and work until after the New Year.
Skipping over the next Wednesday opener (The Greatest Showman), I’m heading to the Friday release of Pitch Perfect 3 as the next new release to pull ahead of the pack. The third installment of the popular franchise opens in 3,400 theaters this Friday and will appeal to a largely female audience as well as young adults. There is crossover appeal here that should play well over the holiday season. Reviews aren’t stellar (37% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) but even the bad reviews point to the chemistry of its leads and that has been one of the major reasons these films have been so successful. I also think the film is pretty review proof and that fans will flock to it no matter what the critics say. The second film opened to a staggering $69.2 million (an opening that eclipsed the entire box office run of the first film) but no one, not even Universal Pictures, is expecting the third film to open that high. The second film benefitted from a summer release when its core audience is on break for a much longer period of time and there was just more hype for the sequel because the first film was a moderate box office hit that became even bigger once it hit home release (a high selling soundtrack album didn’t hurt either). I think the film could gross between $30-35 million from Friday to Christmas Day and again, with this period being more of a marathon than a sprint, it should see healthy grosses to push it beyond the $100 million mark by the end of its run and that would be a true win for the studio and the franchise which has billed this as the final installment.
Heading back to Wednesday, we have another wide release that should play well but I’m still on the fence about its long-term prospects. The Greatest Showman looks like true award season bait as its a musical on such a grand scale but early reviews haven’t seemed to hit yet. As of this writing, there is no Rotten Tomatoes score and I haven’t really heard many words on the film in regards to it being good or bad. The film did score Golden Globe nominations for Best Comedy or Musical and for Hugh Jackman in the Best Actor In A Comedy or Musical but those nominations seem like status quo rather than the Hollywood Foreign Press knowing they’re much deserved. In its favor is that musicals do work well during this time period. 2012’s Les Miserables, also starring Hugh Jackman, opened on Christmas Day and grossed $66.7 million during its first 6 days of release. In 2014, Into The Woods opened on Christmas Day as well and grossed $46.1 million in its first four days. These kind of films are big with adults and even a younger audience but those were musicals based on bigger properties and had a bit of a built-in audience that increased demand to see them. Also, even when the musical is a well-known property, it can stumble a bit during the holiday season. Annie opened to $15.8 million over its first three days back in 2014 and probably came in lower due to competition from Into The Woods. Some box office experts say The Greatest Showman is tracking behind Into The Woods but I think the cast allows it to open in the middle of the pack a bit and its future prospects will all be based on word of mouth and the critical reviews as they come in. I think $20-22 million is a safe bet for it first six days.
Up next is another new release from Friday is Downsizing, which opens in 2,600 theaters. The Alexander Payne film which stars Matt Damon is definitely for the more adult crowd and while reviews from the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals earlier this fall were strong, the reviews pouring in now are a bit more mixed (57% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing). I’m going to guess that this film isn’t for everyone but if it can tap into the adult audience that is looking for something a bit quirky and outside the box, it should start off ok. I’m calling about $10-12 million from Friday to Christmas Day.
The last of this week’s new wide releases is Father Figures, which is opening in 2,800 locations. There isn’t a ton of hype from the film as it heads into release and it being an R-rated comedy could either help it (just because it’s a bit different for the holiday season) or it could kneecap it because moviegoers aren’t feeling that sort of vibe or the holidays. Box office tracking has it pacing behind The Night Before, Why Him? & Keeping Up With The Joneses which were similar in nature. No reviews posted as of yet on Rotten Tomatoes so depending on word of mouth or critical reception, it could come in at the low or higher end of expectations. I’m guessing it could do $7-12 million between Friday and Christmas Day.
Expanding titles will also be looking to make their mark over the weekend as both Fox Searchlight’s The Shape of Water and Focus’s Darkest Hour expand into 700+ locations. Hard to call how these could do because they’re not ultra wide but they could both jump to the $3-5 million range.
Then we have Christmas Day, which will be a strong day for most of the releases and also sees All The Money In The World jumping into the fray. The Ridley Scott directed film made headlines when it was decided to replace the disgraced Kevin Spacey in the film after it was already completed with Christopher Plummer. The truly boss move has seemed to pay off because Plummer is earning raves for a role he filmed only 6 weeks ago and the reviews for the film itself are very good (91% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing). Award chatter was minimal before the casting swap and now it’s a contender (It received Golden Globe nominations for director Ridley Scott, Best Actress in A Drama for Michelle Williams and a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Plummer). This is an adult-skewing film and they play surprisingly well on Christmas Day. Fences opened to $6.7 million last year on Christmas Day and that film definitely skewed older, yet still put up a solid debut. Fences was a pure drama while All The Money In The World plays more like a thriller so that could have it open a bit higher. I’m calling $8-10 million on Christmas Day.
Additionally, STX will release Aaron Sorkin’s Molly’s Game starring Jessica Chastain into 250+ locations leading to a nationwide expansion on January 5. Lastly, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread will open in four locations on Christmas Day. Basically, there is a lot to choose from this weekend. Throw in the limited releases hitting theaters this week that include Steven Spielberg’s The Post, which will open in nine locations in New York, Los Angeles and Washington DC before expanding nationwide on January 12 and Hostiles starring Christian Bale, Wes Studi, and Rosamund Pike into three theaters, and I’d say a lot of movie fans will be spreading out their money on a wide variety of product this weekend.
And then there is Star Wars: The Last Jedi which will rule all of these releases as it heads into its second weekend but it’s a weekend that everyone will be watching very closely. Previous $200+ million openers have dropped anywhere from 40-50% in their second weekend with Star Wars: The Force Awakens falling just 39.8% in 2015. I don’t think that small drop is in store for The Last Jedi due to its very divisive response from moviegoers, which suggests the film will still rule the holidays but won’t be a true monster like The Force Awakens was. If it drops 54% or better it can gross $100+million in weekend two but a part of me thinks the drop will be bigger. I originally felt a 45% drop was in store but I think it could be anywhere between 55-60%. If it came in below $100 million and grossed about $95 million, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Usually, I post the final numbers on Monday but since the holiday season plays a bit different at the box office, I will be doing daily updates on the holiday box office plays out so we can see how in line my predictions are as they come in.
