We’re only heading into August but it seems like the summer box office is cooling down as we’re left with one last blockbuster to stake its claim at the top of the box office.
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, starring Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham, will have no problem landing the top spot at the box office this weekend. The film takes Johnson’s character from the Fast franchise that has appeared in four of the main films and pairs him with Statham, who made his appearance at the end of the sixth film before getting a more substantial role in the next two films. The duo’s chemistry in The Fate of the Furious is what led to this spinoff and it features the kind of odd-couple banter blended with over the top action that fans will likely eat up from this offshoot.
It’s really hard to compare Hobbs & Shaw to other spinoffs in terms of the box office. Since the film isn’t a direct sequel in the Fast franchise it’s not expected to open to the heights of the last film, which had a worldwide opening weekend of $541.9 million. China was a huge factor in that performance but it’s also a brand people are familiar with. Audiences may like Johnson and Statham in these roles but this spinoff brand hasn’t proven itself yet so this will test the waters for other potential spinoffs from the franchise.
The good box office comparison here is last year’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout which opened to $61.2 million domestic, $156.2 million worldwide. The Mission: Impossible franchise is the best fit because it’s based on recurring characters, was one of the last summer blockbusters released last year and features similar over the top action that has been the selling point in all the ads for which Hobbs & Shaw. Fandango domestic pre-sales show that Hobbs & Shaw is pacing on par with Fallout which makes the comparison even more ideal. Also, in regards to pre-sales, Atom Tickets reports that the Fast & Furious spinoff is outpacing the advance ticket sales for other Dwayne Johnson films including Skyscraper & Rampage. Hobbs & Shaw is also selling 2X the number of tickets in pre-sales compared to Godzilla: King of the Monsters.
While Hobbs & Shaw opens in territories like the UK, Brazil, Germany, Japan, and Russia through Friday and South Asian markets today, China, France, Italy, and Korea are coming later so that’s going to impact how high the worldwide opening can actually go. This film should do very well in China but they held off this weekend because local competition there this weekend is pretty heavy and they want the film to get as much exposure as it can get.
Lastly, even though this film would likely be pretty review proof, critics are mostly praising this as high entertainment with a 70% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. The main selling point, other than the action, is the rapport between its stars and critics say that is pretty on point. Throw in Idris Elba as the villain and Vanessa Kirby in a kickass role as Statham’s sister, I think the film will see about $65-70 million for its opening weekend.
The most notable holdover we’ll be watching is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood which debuted to a Tarantino career-high of $41 million last weekend. This weekend will test how the word of mouth is on the film and despite what seemed like universal praise from moviegoers last weekend, the naysayers are starting to creep in which suggests that the film is pretty polarizing. Essentially if you love Quentin Tarantino’s work, you’ll likely love Hollywood but winning over the uninitiated is a bit of a mixed bag. The film’s “B” CinemaScore last weekend was the first sign that critics and moviegoers weren’t necessarily on the same page with this and it was driven home by the 72% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, compared to its 84% from critics. I’m going to lean on the side that curiosity from those who didn’t see it last weekend will win over in this case and the film should see a second weekend of $18-20 million.
