The holiday luster is starting to subside as we ease into the new year at the box office. Our lone new wide release is Escape Room, the annual January horror film that wasn’t screened for critics and will fade quickly after a decent opening weekend. With no major threat in its way, Aquaman will easily rule the box office for the third weekend in a row.
Since this weekend looks to be dominated by a slew of holdovers, it should be noted that it can be difficult to gauge just how much a film will dip coming off the busy span from Christmas to New Year’s. New Year’s Eve fell on a Monday, so most children won’t head back to school until the following Monday, which means moviegoing could still see a big boost throughout the first weekend of 2019. Most of those dollars will definitely go to most of the holiday releases but Escape Room could sneak in a decent opening from those who saw most of the holiday offerings during the break.
Aquaman was the film of choice during the holiday season and that will continue this weekend. January is typically a slower month at the box office so the film doesn’t have true competition until January 18 when Glass opens. That film entered tracking with a projected $75 million opening over MLK weekend but until then Jason Momoa will rule the box office sea once again. I’m calling for a weekend of about $26 million.
Escape Room was directed by Adam Robitel, who co-wrote Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension and helmed Insidious: The Last Key. The film, which cost $9 million to produce, follows a group of strangers who get trapped in a deadly escape room. The one thing working in its favor is that it was cheap to make and even if the wheels fall off after this weekend, it should still turn a profit. As of this writing, reviews haven’t been posted on Rotten Tomatoes which is never a good sign. That being said, films like this tend to be review-proof on opening weekend so it should see decent returns. I’m calling for an opening of about $11 million.
Another holiday holdover that should still continue to see decent legs is Mary Poppins Returns which has performed admirably despite an opening that many believed was soft. The film opened to $23.5 million but has seen great legs and is currently sitting at $114 million domestic and $86 million from overseas markets. Musicals tend to be leggy at the box office and Poppins has potential Oscar nominations waiting in the wings so it’s still going to be a box office contender. I’m calling for a third weekend of about $16-18 million.
Of all the holiday holdovers, Bumblebee is looking to break out after facing stiff competition from Aquaman and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Bumblebee has posted respectable numbers with about $78.5 million domestic and $90 million from overseas markets but it does carry a $135 million budget so it’s going to need some more of that word of mouth to kick in so Paramount can justify its investment. I think all will be well in the end, especially with Bumblebee set to open in China, a market that even god-awful Transformers films have thrived in. I’m calling for about $13-15 million for the weekend.
