It’s about that time to look ahead at the October box office and we begin by checking out the first week of October which has proven to be a solid time to open films to incredible box office. Venom and A Star Is Born entered box office tracking today and early indications show that both are likely to break out.
Gravity is the current box office champ of the first week of October with a $55.7 million opening back in 2013. The Martian came close to topping it with its $54.3 million three years later but the Sandra Bullock space-drama still has the crown. There is some proof that studios want to turn the first weekend of October into a box office bonanza as next year sees the release of Todd Phillip’s Joker movie on October 4.
Looking to take the record from Gravity is Venom, opening on October 5, which enters tracking with an opening between $60-70 million. That would be a great start for the film, which has a reported budget of $40-75 million before marketing costs. Currently, Venom is strongest among males both younger & older but also very strong with females as well.
The big caveat for Venom will be its reviews. While most are excited to see the film, many are apprehensive about the film’s overall quality. Projections last November boosted Justice League higher to $110-$120 million days before it opened, but reviews at 40% Rotten and a B+ CinemaScore dropped the film to a $93.8 million 3-day. Bad reviews could drop the Marvel film below its tracking and that is likely to be its main foe in regards to it box office potential. The film is tracking as high as it is because its the first big event film of the fall. Venom is an iconic anti-hero in Spider-Man lore so there is also that interest that has allowed the tracking to start out high. Its ability to surge higher will be how big its promotional push will be in the coming weeks and, of course, the early reviews.
A Star Is Born also entered tracking with an opening in the $25 million range. I’m going to assume they’re being a bit conservative with this tracking because, from the looks of it, A Star Is Born is poised to open higher than that. The Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper film received rave reviews at The Venice Film Festival and currently sits with a 95% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The film is also generating huge Oscar buzz so not only do I think the film will best its tracking, I think it’s going to have a lengthy run as adult audiences are likely to embrace the film if it’s as good as the reviews suggest.
Tickets for A Star Is Born went on sale on Fandango and Atom Tickets yesterday while word is Venom tickets go on sale tomorrow. Whatever the case may be, the first weekend of October is going to be one to watch at the box office.
