After the dismal debut of Terminator: Dark Fate last weekend, it’s up to Stephen King to kickstart the November box office and the latest adaptation of his work, Doctor Sleep, looks poised to do it.
Doctor Sleep is directed by one of the more current creative voices in horror, Mike Flanagan. Flanagan may not be a household name to most moviegoers but genre fans have been singing his praises since Oculus and those praises only increased with efforts such as Hush and Netflix’s The Haunting of Hill House. He seems like the perfect choice to take on Doctor Sleep, Stephen King’s 2013 novel and the sequel to his 1977 classic, The Shining. There is no denying that it’s one of his more well-known novels and the film adaptation from 1980 is considered a horror classic, even if King has vocally been critical of Stanley Kubrick’s changes from his source material.
The marketing for Doctor Sleep has been effective in the sense that it really makes obvious references to The Shining but it also shows that Stephen King is behind this take on his 2013 novel because it combines the best f his work with the work that Kubrick put into The Shining. One might think a film’s box office potential would be limited since a sequel has come so many years later but the 2013 novel on which this is based, only brought The Shining more to the forefront and was just another piece to keep The Shining relevant.
Box office comparisons for Doctor Sleep are a bit difficult. You can’t compare it to 1980’s The Shining because that film came out in a much different box office climate. The best comparisons are to the recent Stephen King remake entries that have ignited the box office. Doctor Sleep isn’t going to be a $120 million+ opener like It or even a $91 million opener like It: Chapter Two. Doctor Sleep doesn’t have the level of popularity as that property but a better comparison would be this year’s remake of King’s Pet Sematary. That film tracked well with the younger demo and females and opened to an impressive $24.5 million. Word has it that Doctor Sleep is tracking even higher in those demos than that film so the opening is likely to be on par or even higher than Pet Sematary.
Some naysayers think that the runtime (2 1/2 hours) and the fact that it doesn’t utilize the traditional jump scares of most modern horror films, will be a detriment to the film’s box office. The film is reportedly not a slow burn but it’s not a non-stop scarefest either. Reviews are solid at 75% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes but some have pointed out that it’s not as strong as the 93% of Jordan Peele’s Us, the 98% of Get Out, or the 86% of It. To that, you can say it’s well above the 57% rotten of King’s latest Pet Sematary and It Chapter Two‘s 63% fresh, so Doctor Sleep is in a pretty good spot. I’m calling about $25-30 million for its opening weekend.
There are other wide releases this weekend and one should prove to be solid counterprogramming not only this weekend but in the weeks ahead. Last Christmas, starring Emilia Clarke, Henry Golding, and Emma Thompson, is inspired by the George Michael holiday song and gets an early start on holiday cheer at the box office. For a movie like Last Christmas, the whole story isn’t the opening weekend. The hope is that the film will have legs throughout November as it heads into December towards Christmas. The film has Veteran’s Day weekend to play well on in this frame and it’s like to see a boost over the Thanksgiving holiday as well. The film is 49% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes but I think this one is review proof because those who really like it feel like it will go on to be a romantic Christmas classic much like Love, Actually did after it opened 16 years ago. For comparison’s sake, Last Christmas is strong with females 17-34 followed by older females and teen girls. The film is also stronger than Yesterday ($17 million opening) among the female 17-34 demo. I’m calling an opening weekend of about $15-17 million.
Up next is the male-skewing Midway, which is looking to blatantly take advantage of the Veteran’s Day holiday. The ads for the film, which has a large ensemble that includes Woody Harrelson, Mandy Moore, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Darren Criss, Luke Evans, Patrick Wilson, and Ed Skrein, has touted its patriotism in all of its promos and while it seems like a rather cheap ploy for a film that is 36% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes, it may work to entice the target audience. Midway is skewing towards older men and it’s going to make some kind of noise with an opening around $14 million.
Lastly, we have Playing With Fire, a family-friendly effort starring John Cena, Keegan-Michael Key, and Judy Greer. On the surface, the female doesn’t look like it will make much of an impact because the marketing push doesn’t quite seem there and the reviews aren’t great (26% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) but the PG effort could be its own brand of counterprogramming for families. Comparisons are being made to the Mark Wahlberg-Rose Byrne-Isabela Moner dramedy Instant Family, which opened to $14.5 million and ultimately grossed at $67.3 million stateside and $120.6 million globally. That film cost $48 million to make and opened with a similarily mute marketing push yet it saw some legs with families looking for light entertainment. Could that happen with Playing With Fire? We’ll have to wait and see but I’m calling an opening of $8-10 million.
