The Christmas box office is upon us! It’s that time of year when it’s not all about the opening weekend but how much the films will leg out as we head into the new year. The Christmas box office tends to be kind, even to films that would normally come up short any other time of the year. Today, the bigger films of the holiday weekend entered box office tracking and they’re poised to have a great start at the box office.
Leading the pack is Mary Poppins Returns which is tracking to debut in the $70 Million+ range. The film is aided by solid early reviews and if that goodwill continues as we head into its opening, Poppins could possibly surge even higher than early projections. In comparison to other musicals launched during the Christmas frame, Rob Marshall’s feature adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Into the Woods took in a first week of $64 million back in 2014. while Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables delivered a first week that was close to $73 million. Mary Poppins Returns also has awards buzz as well and it’s likely to garner nominations at the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards so I wouldn’t be surprised if the film became the Jumanji of this year in terms of longterm prospects.
Coming up next is Aquaman which enters tracking at $65 million and $100 million over five days. Early buzz says the film is quite good so it should even appeal to DC naysayers who have stayed away due to subpar films. This will be more Wonder Woman than Justice League and a lot of its potential will be determined once more critical reviews are released. Some will scream that the tracking has it starting less than Justice League ($111.9 million for its first five days) but this $160 million production is likely to leg out very well over the holiday season to surpass where Justice League ended up by the end of its run. Aquaman is also the top choice for male moviegoers over the holiday frame and is its own brand of counterprogramming against Mary Poppins Returns.
Attempting to appeal to young kids, especially young boys, is Bumblebee which enters tracking at $40 million. This may seem like it’s on the low end but it’s actually a solid start and it could surge higher if reviews are good (the film looks better than any Transformers film that came before it). Another reason the opening is a bit low is that it’s in direct competition with Aquaman but I also think Bumblebee will leg it out to a solid final gross and will be a solid alternative for those who aren’t into the DC fare.
On the very low end of the spectrum is the Jennifer Lopez led film, Second Act, which enters tracking in the $12-16 million range. The good news for the film is that there are no other female-led comedies in release during the season and the budget is far lower than the bigger films that are in contention at the holiday box office. Even if the film starts low, it could leg out and be one of those Christmas hits that’s a hit only because it came out during the holiday stretch.
