Another weekend brings us a couple of high-profile releases that are looking for box office supremacy. After Godzilla: King of the Monsters underperformed last weekend, all eyes will be on the new pics, particularly X-Men: Dark Phoenix.
After two different release dates leading up to its eventual June 7 launch, Dark Phoenix will finally see the light of day. The film was originally slated for November of last year but that date was vacated to do massive third act reshoots. A new date in February was set but once the trailer garnered 44 million views in China in 24 hours, the film was moved to June 7 to get a better slot in that market. The overseas bottom line is very important for Dark Phoenix, especially considering the budget surged to $200 million once the reshoots took place. Dark Phoenix likely won’t match that figure stateside by the end of its run and Disney-Fox knows that international play will be VERY important.
The Disney-Fox merger actually has worked in favor of the latest X-Men entry. Once the merger became official, Disney stepped in and put their marketing muscle into the film. This has led to impressive key art that has been well-received on social media and a barrage of TV spots that actually sell the film a bit better than when 20th Century Fox was leading the marketing charge. Even though Disney is likely to reboot the X-Men eventually and add them to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, they also don’t want this film to fail either because they now have a financial stake in it.
2016’s X-Men: Apocalypse opened to $65.7 million over three days and $79.8 million over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. Dark Phoenix entered tracking at $45-50 million but that has since risen to $50-55 million with some saying that $60 million is a possibility. The lowest opening for an X-Men film remains the 2000 original with $54.4 million while the lowest opening for this new class of X-Men films is 2011’s X-Men: First Class at $55.1 million. I would say $60 million could happen but the hugest hurdle here is the reviews and they have simply not been good. As of this writing, the film is 21% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and that might make casual moviegoers shy away from seeing it.
On the other hand, awful reviews didn’t stop Venom (29% rotten) from breaking October records and making $855 million worldwide by the end of its run. As I stated earlier, the international bottom line is what’s important for Dark Phoenix and this new batch of films has seen its international presence be a huge factor in relation to their budgets. X-Men: First Class grossed $353.6 million worldwide ($146 million stateside) on a $160 million budget and was followed by X-Men: Days of Future Past which grossed $747.8 million worldwide ($233.9 million stateside) on a $200 million budget. The previous film, X-Men: Apocalypse, grossed $543.9 million worldwide ($155.4 million stateside) on a budget of $178 million. As you can see the worldwide grosses have allowed the films to turn a profit. Apocalypse was also rotten like Dark Phoenix at 47% and still managed decent numbers while First Class was 86% fresh and Days of Future Past came in at 90% fresh, respectively.
The “Dark Phoenix Saga” was adapted before for the screen back in 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand which was maligned by fans and critics alike. Oddly enough, it’s still the highest grossing X-Men film on the domestic front with $234.3 million by the end of its run. The idea is that Dark Phoenix has to be better than The Last Stand but so far, reviews at least, suggest otherwise since The Last Stand, while still rotten, scored higher at 58%. There are a lot of factors at play that could derail Dark Phoenix but a lot of it is a wait and see game because audiences have been known to ignore the critics and enjoy the film on their own merits. I feel like I’m being generous but I think Dark Phoenix sees about $52-55 million and a second place to the more family oriented The Secret Life of Pets 2.
The original The Secret Life of Pets took its interesting premise to an opening of $104.3 million which is still the best opening for an original animated movie. Despite that huge opening, I think the sequel was never expected to surge that high. Pets 2 is opening without the same surprise and novelty of the first film and reviews haven’t been as kind this go round. The first film was fresh at 73% which the sequel is at 62% fresh. The film is likely to be the top choice for children this weekend but Aladdin is also claiming some of that audience as well. I think The Secret Life of Pets 2 opens to about $60 million and remains the choice for kids until Toy Story 4 jumps into the frame on June 21.
