Black Panther is poised to continue its box office dominance as Red Sparrow & Death Wish fight to get noticed.
Last weekend, Black Panther scored the second best sophomore weekend of all time when it cleared $111 million after its massive launch the weekend before. The question in its third weekend is if it can also score one of the best third weekends of all time. Considering how the film beat its second weekend tracking by a considerable margin, I wouldn’t be surprised if it held up well again to take the second place crown from Avatar, which grossed $68.4 million during its third weekend. First place is owned by The Force Awakens, which grossed $90.2 million in weekend three, so that’s definitely out of reach but I’m calling Black Panther to sneak by Avatar with a $69 million third weekend gross.
Jennifer Lawrence is back on the big screen after appearing in the financial misfire mother! with Red Sparrow. The film reteams the actress and her Catching Fire and Mockingjay director Francis Lawrence and is based on the Jason Matthews novel of the same name. The movie follows a Russian ballerina who is recruited by the country’s intelligence service to become part of their female, seductress killing machine corps.
The film carries a modest, by action standards, budget of $69 million so the potential of it being a winner, at least worldwide, is high. Jennifer Lawrence has mass international appeal and the plot will be intriguing for foreign audiences. Domestically it comes down to word of mouth. Reviews are fresh at 62% on Rotten Tomatoes but that’s also barely fresh. Some reviews say the film isn’t as action packed as the previews suggest so that could make impatient audiences a bit bored. Lawrence can still open mainstream fare well (mother!, which only opened to $7.5 million, doesn’t count since it was a very niche film) so I think the movie could pull in an opening between $20-24 million.
Next up is Death Wish which has Bruce Willis back on the big screen after what seems like a lengthy absence. The film, directed by Eli Roth, Willis stars as Dr. Paul Kersey, a surgeon who only sees the aftermath of his city’s violence as it’s rushed into his ER – until his wife (Elisabeth Shue) and college-age daughter (Camila Morrone) are viciously attacked in their suburban home. In a city overloaded with crimes, Paul’s hunts against his family’s assailants to deliver justice grabs the media’s attention, and the city starts to wonder if he’s a grim reaper or guardian angel.
Despite no reviews being posted as of yet, this film could get some traction from the male audience that has already seen Black Panther too many times. The advertising has kicked into high gear in recent days and it’s shut your brain off at the door approach is conveyed well. It might not be high art but it could be a crowd pleaser. I’m calling $16 million for the weekend.
Check back on Monday for the final box office results.
