A few weeks ago I would’ve called this weekend an easy call with Sylvester Stallone’s latest Rambo effort taking the top spot while Brad Pitt’s Ad Astra could turn good reviews and minor Oscar buzz into some solid box office coin but the classy folks of Downton Abbey have entered the dinner party & they may end up being the stars of it.
I’ve never seen an episode of the critically acclaimed Downton Abbey but I know that across its 52 episodes, the show gained a huge fan following that made it a huge international property. Between its airings on ITV in the United Kingdom and PBS in the States, the series really caught on with older viewers and also turned that into Primetime Emmy success along with accolades at the Golden Globe Awards. Downton Abbey is also the most-watched series on ITV and PBS, just adding to its immense popularity.
Downton Abbey last aired in 2015 and now in 2019, we have the series heading to the big screen this weekend. I thought the series, while popular, would be too niche to generate box office heat but there are signs that this may end up being a surprise break out hit. Pre-sale tickets for the film are through the roof according to Fandango, besting those of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again and The Great Gatsby. The openings for those films fall between $34-50 million so Downton Abbey is in great company in that regard.
The caveat here, determining if it can top Rambo: Last Blood this weekend, is if Downton Abbey is only its pre-sale business. Does a British adult drama play to a packed late-night crowd on a Friday and Saturday night? It’s probably unlikely and that’s where Rambo could make up ground with its male target audience. Downton Abbey will be attracting older women this weekend and if pre-sales plus early to mid-evening business is good, Abbey could possibly edge out Stallone. Downton Abbey enters the weekend with an 81% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and that’s something its older demo will definitely pay attention to. Downton Abbey is already off to a solid start with the sneaks that were held last Thursday which pulled in $2.2 million. Sneaks start again today at 7 PM before it expands to 3,076 theaters on Friday. I’m thinking the gang of Downton Abbey will take the top spot with a gross of $23-25 million.
That means Rambo: Last Blood has to settle for second, even though early tracking suggested it would open at number one before Downton Abbey’s tracking started to surge. Even if Rambo takes the runner-up spot, it could still garner a franchise-best opening, topping First Blood Part II‘s $20.1 million opening. The previous John Rambo film released by Lionsgate in 2008 opened to $18.2 million and topped out at $42.7 million stateside on a $50 million budget but it was saved by its worldwide total of $113.2 million. Reviews are right down the middle with a 50% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing but the mostly male crowd likely doesn’t care about that. I think Rambo: Last Blood sees an opening of about $21-22 million.
Adult sci-fi dramas are a tough sell at the box office, even if they are stellar, and that’s something that may make Ad Astra a costly gamble as it heads into the weekend. Disney inherited this film from Fox after their merger but it wasn’t a clunker that they would be ashamed of acquiring. The film, starring Brad Pitt, made its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival and has scored high praise for its technical achievements and for Pitt’s performance. The film is currently 82% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing but getting in its way is that the film is an expensive endeavor. Some reports say the budget is about $80 million while others have said it’s as high as $100 million. That’s not huge by most standards but it’s pricey for a sci-fi drama that will be fitting for love from any demo this weekend. Men, even older men, will be distracted by Rambo and older women will likely veer towards Downton Abbey with younger women still heading into Hustlers. I personally think the film looks like a must-watch but I also know that it has an uphill battle that will only be helped by solid word of mouth and significant international play. I’m predicting an opening of about $16-18 million.
