Blade Runner 2049 is predictably the number one movie in America but a lot of the good news stops there. For a film that carries an $150 million production budget (not including marketing costs) it needed to debut to a higher figure and I’m not sure this is the kind of film that will have substantial legs on the domestic front.
Things were looking very good on Thursday night when the film grossed $4 million during previews. That was a little below what Alien: Covenant did during Thursday night previews ($4.4 million) and that film had the benefit of being a summer release when people have a bit more time to stay out late on a Thursday night to rush out to see a film. This was a solid total for Blade Runner 2049 but, much like Alien: Covenant, the fanboy rush was high for this one and it caved the rest of the weekend.
The weekend total came in at $31.5 million and while it seems silly to call an opening weekend like this a disappointment, there is no denying this fact. The film was tracking between $45-50 million and it came in way below this figure. The plus side, if there is one, is that there is no disconnect between fans and critics. The film received an A- CinemaScore and hold a fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes of 89% as of this writing. Fans of the material, and likely the original, seem to love it but I think the casual moviegoer decided to mostly stay away. The original film came out in 1982 (and wasn’t a huge success back then but became a huge cult classic after the fact) but most 20 somethings probably never heard of it or don’t care. This film is catering to males 35-55 and I think they did show up but science fiction continues to be a very niche audience, especially a sci-fi action film. The more cerebral efforts seem to do better because they have mass appeal and aren’t tied to a film you may or may not have seen (look no further than Gravity, The Martian or even Arrival).
So can this film make it to at least $100 million domestic? I honestly don’t know. I know a lot of people who saw it who thought it was boring and way too long (it clocks in at 163 minutes) while others think it’s a modern day masterpiece. Word of mouth is going to be questionable and it’s a matter of which voice is stronger (the casual moviegoer or the fanboys).
I also mentioned in my predictions that people would maybe go to the movies more this weekend because of recent real-life tragic events. I think that was the case on some fronts but not for this film. It’s a pretty dark film and maybe that’s not what people want to see right now with all the current doom and gloom going on in the world. What seemed like good timing for the film to be released, suddenly isn’t anymore. It could be destined to have a life like the original film and considered a true classic down the road and I only think it will perform decently internationally but it’s definitely not recouping its budget in the states. Definitely, one to watch down the road to see how it holds up.
Finishing in second is our other new release, The Mountain Between Us, with an estimated $10.1 million. This was made on a slim $35 million budget and the one reason it won’t be a disaster is that it has two leads in the form of Idris Elba and Kate Winslet that are very internationally friendly. Their appeal abroad alone could ensure that this film breaks even down the road The film also received an A- CinemaScore so those who did see it seemed to enjoy it.
Check out the full top ten results below:
- Blade Runner 2049 – $31.5 million (New)
- The Mountain Between Us – $10.1 million (New)
- It – $9.6 million – (-42.9%, $304.9 million)
- My Little Pony: The Movie – $8.8 million (New)
- Kingsman: The Golden Circle – $8.1 million (-52.2%, $79.9 million)
- American Made – $8 million (-51.9%, $30.4 million)
- The LEGO Ninjago Movie – $6.7 million (-42%, $43.8 million)
- Victoria & Abdul – $4.1 million (+279.2%, 5.9 million)
- Flatliners – $3.8 million (-42.2%, $12.3 milllion)
- Battle of the Sexes – $2.4 million (-29.8%, 7.6 million)
