Bad Boys For Life really picked a good weekend to open a couple of weeks ago. The film was able to dominate MLK weekend while its second-week number one finish was made easy due to a lack of competition and that’s going to continue this weekend. The Bad Boys sequel will easily spend a third weekend at number one but its real competition is the Super Bowl on Sunday and this is an event that always puts a dent in the weekend box office.
The box office CAN be kind to films that skew more female over Super Bowl weekend but sometimes the male demo shows up as well. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour opened to $31.1 million over Super Bowl weekend in 2008 while Dear, John, starring Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfriend cleared $30.4 million during the Super Bowl weekend of 2010. On the male-skewing side, Liam Neeson’s Taken began a leggy box office run at $24.7 million during Super Bowl weekend 2009 while Chronicle appealed to young males during Super Bowl weekend 2012 with $22 million. Horror can also be a safe bet, especially since it also skews well with young girls. The When A Stranger Calls remake opened to $21.6 million during Super Bowl weekend of 2006 while Daniel Radcliffe’s The Woman In Black scared up $20.8 million during Super Bowl weekend 2012.
There are two new wide releases this weekend but neither is expected to make much of an impression because they lack the buzz of the aforementioned films. Leading the way is The Rhythm Section starring Blake Lively, Jude Law & Sterling K. Brown. Directed by Reed Morano, The Rhythm Section follows Lively as a widow who discovers that the plane accident that killed her family three years earlier was no accident. Bent on revenge, she embarks on a mission to track down those responsible by assuming the identity of an assassin. The film was adapted for the screen by Mark Burnell from his novel of the same name.
Blake Lively is earning high notices for her performance in the film but the movie isn’t earning the same praise as her work. The Rhythm Section currently sits with a rotten score of 33% and that just isn’t enough to entice moviegoers who were on the fence about seeing it. Much has been made about the release date delays (shifting from February 2019 to November and then to its current release date) but that was mostly due to an on-set injury suffered by Lively that caused production to shut down for an extended period of time. The hope is that the female-led action film can attract a female audience that may want to avoid the big game on Sunday. Comparisons for The Rhythm Section include 2011’s Hanna which took in just over $12 million for its start and 2012’s Haywire which premiered with $8.4 million. I don’t think there’s enough buzz for the film to really break out this weekend so I’m predicting an opening of $7-9 million.
Also opening this weekend is Gretel & Hansel, a fantasy horror take on the classic Brothers Grimm fairytale. The film takes a more female-focused spin on the story as 16-year-old Gretel (Sophia Lillis) leads her 8-year-old brother Hansel (Sam Leakey) into the dark woods in search for food, where they find a house belonging to a powerful and evil witch (Alice Krige) and need the help of a nameless Hunter (Charles Babalola) to escape.
Earlier this morning, the film was fresh at 63% but since starting these predictions it has fallen to 56% rotten. The film gets bragging rights for being the best-reviewed film of the two wide releases but it’s also the wide release that few people know about. If The Rhythm Section is lacking buzz, this one is virtually non-existent beyond genre fans who are interested in this sort of thing. I think this one gets lost in the shuffle with about $5 million for the weekend.
That leaves Bad Boys For Life to lead once again before giving up the top spot to Birds of Prey next weekend. I’m predicting about $19-20 million for the weekend as it should be near the $150 million mark by the end of the weekend.
