X-Men: Dark Phoenix has a lot working against it between being shuffled around the schedule various times and early word that suggests the film isn’t really good. It also has the burden of being the last X-Men film released that was solely owned by Twentieth Century Fox before the Disney-Fox merger. A lot of fans just want to get this one out of the way so the X-Men can officially join the MCU so there is a lot of negative energy attached to Dark Phoenix that it’s trying to overcome before its June 7 release date.
Adding a bit to that negative energy is the release of its box office tracking. Tracking can definitely change in the coming weeks but as of now, Dark Phoenix is tracking for an opening between $45-55 million. If it hits the low end of tracking, that would make it the lowest opening of an X-Men film, spinoffs included.
Every X-Men movie has opened to at least $53 million and at the moment the lowest opening is 2013’s The Wolverine which opened to $53.1 million. The highest 3-day debut for an X-Men film oddly enough belongs to the film that many fans hate: 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand which opened to $102.7 million. Much like Dark Phoenix, it also tackled the much beloved Dark Phoenix saga and was met with intense criticism over its quality.
There are a few things could make Dark Phoenix go high or low. X-Men: Apocalypse, the previous film, did open decently with $65.7 million but it wasn’t well-received by critics (47% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it met with mixed notices from fans. That could be just one reason why interest could be so-so for Dark Phoenix. Another issue is the shifting of release dates. X-Men: Dark Phoenix was slated for release last November and then it was moved to February of this year. After a trailer was released promoting the February release, the film was moved to its current release date of June 7. Moviegoers are pretty savvy now and they know if a film is moved around on the release schedule a lot it’s a sign that something isn’t quite right. There were also some much-publicized reshoots that took place and depending on who you believe they were either standard reshoots that any tentpole film experiences or they were done because early screenings just weren’t good. Adding to this is that the trailers, while well-produced, aren’t really garnering the online buzz that most films of this type generate.
All news isn’t bad for Dark Phoenix. 10 minutes viewed at WonderCon a few weeks back was well-received by those in attendance and honestly, a lot of it will come down to reviews. If Fox tries to hide the film from critics until the last minute, then we know we have a problem. If the film gets an insanely rotten score, then we know we have a bigger problem. If the film gets moderate to good reviews, that could turn the tide and allow it to debut on the high end of tracking. Remember, the film is over a month away and a lot can change with the proper marketing blitz.
X-Men: Dark Phoenix hits screens on June 7.
