September looks to continue an exciting run after the big opening of The Nun last weekend as The Predator looks to claim the top spot but strides in tracking suggest that A Simple Favor may surprise this weekend.
The Predator has been in the news for all the wrong reasons as it heads to its release this weekend. The film sparked some controversy when it was revealed that FOX deleted a scene featuring Olivia Munn and another actor, who happened to be a registered sex offender. Munn was the one that lead the charge to get this to happen but in the process, it really stalled a lot of the promotion for the film. Many of the actors in the film backed out of promotional appearances, likely to avoid being asked about the situation, while Munn has stated feeling alienated by some of her co-stars after she made this news public. Sterling K. Brown and Boyd Holdbrook have publicly voiced their support for the actress recently but FOX has to be a bit peeved that this stalled promotional efforts days before the film’s release.
That being said, some believe any press is good press and it does put the film’s name out there, for better or worse. The Predator brand is also pretty popular among fans although the franchise isn’t known for huge openings at the box office. The best opening for a Predator movie belongs to its 2004 hybrid, Alien vs. Predator which debuted to $38.3 million and finished with the best domestic gross in the series at $80.2 million. That’s the standard the franchise is working with which takes the pressure off of this film a bit to really explode out of the gate.
Black’s reinvention of The Predator takes place in the backwoods of southern Georgia, where the universe’s most lethal hunters are stronger, smarter and deadlier than ever before. It’s up to a ragtag crew of ex-soldiers and an evolutionary biology professor to prevent the end of the human race. Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Jacob Tremblay, Keegan-Michael Key, Olivia Munn, Sterling K. Brown, Thomas Jane, Alfie Allen, Augusto Aguilera, Jake Busey, and Yvonne Strahovski star in the film.
Reviews, following its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, were initially good at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes but as of this writing the film has cratered and fallen to a rotten score of 39%. This is much lower than the original 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger version which earned 80% certified fresh and the 2010 reboot Nimrod Antal-directed version which registered 65% fresh. That being said, The Nun proved that bad reviews don’t keep audiences away if they really want to see the film so poor reviews may be a non-factor for moviegoers looking for something fun at the box office.
Box office tracking has the film opening between $25-30 million and the dial on that hasn’t moved for weeks, likely due to the promotional blitz stalling on the film. I think that the brand is strong enough to hit the high end of the tracking so I’m going to predict a number one finish with about $30 million.
Also opening this weekend is A Simple Favor, starring Anna Kendrick, Blake Lively, & Henry Golding. The Paul Feig directed neo-noir thriller centers around Stephanie (Anna Kendrick), a mommy vlogger who seeks to uncover the truth behind her best friend Emily’s (Blake Lively) sudden disappearance from their small town. Stephanie is joined in her search by Emily’s husband Sean (Crazy Rich Asians’ Henry Golding).
Tracking for the film placed it with a $12-15 million opening some weeks ago but there has been a surge in interest for the film for numerous reasons. The two main stars, Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick, are huge on social media and they, along with director Paul Feig and co-star Henry Golding, have pushed this film heavily on social media which is the haven for the young adult audience the film is partly seeking. Interest among that demographic has grown considerably as the film has neared its release date and this has made studios suggest that this is one reason it will best tracking.
Another reason it’s likely to best tracking is that it’s based on a very popular novel in the same vein as Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl, a book and film adaptation that A Simple Favor has been compared to. Gone Girl opened to $37.5 million due to the popularity of the book and strong reviews while The Girl on the Train, also based on a popular thriller based book, opened to $24.5 million. That film opened at number one with that gross, despite mostly negative reviews.
Another wild card in the advance in tracking is Henry Golding. The actor had no acting credits to his name when he was cast in this film last year but that all changed in August as he was featured as the male romantic lead in Crazy Rich Asians, a film that spent three weeks at number one and has become the highest grossing romantic comedy in nine years. Golding was largely absent from the marketing before the release of Crazy Rich Asians but once that film hit, he was added to the TV spots with third billing alongside his female co-stars and Lionsgate flew him out to Los Angeles in late August for a photo shoot so he could be added to a new poster that was released only a couple of days ago. Lionsgate has said that social media has shown that Golding is one of the reasons women want to see the film and it may prove to be a smart move to capitalize on his emerging leading man status.
A Simple Favor, as of this writing, has strong reviews on its side and is actually the best reviewed wide release this weekend with a solid 79% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Strong reviews will likely allow it to appeal to an older crowd which could also boost box office. Also at play is that this is being pushed heavily to the female demographic with many online promotional materials suggesting ladies are best watching this with a martini in hand. Aviation Gin, a brand that Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds has a stake in and one that is featured heavily in the film, is also pushing this aspect on their end as well. This might be bold, but A Simple Favor has a strong shot at battling it out with The Nun for the number two spot with about $23-25 million this weekend.
Our last new release is White Boy Rick starring Matthew McConaughey. The film is the true story about a Detroit teenager who doubled as ace crack dealer and FBI informant during the 1980s. The trailers and TV spots have elevated the film to really make an impression this weekend and it’s clear the studio really thought they had something here. The studio looked to position this early on during awards season with bows at Telluride and TIFF but critics seem to be really split on this one and this is the kind of film that is likely made or broken by the critical reception. As of this writing, the film is 51% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and while that’s not completely abysmal, the mixed reception may affect box office. I think the trailers have been good enough to establish some interest so I’m predicting about $8-10 million this weekend but its longterm prospects will be determined by word of mouth.
Check back throughout the week to see if my prediction are accurate as Thursday night preview and Friday numbers are released.
