The dog days of summer are upon us and it’s that special period where studios dump films they are unsure of or purely have no faith in the hopes that maybe audiences will respond to the product. The Meg is one of those films opening this weekend and unless Mission: Impossible – Fallout is stronger than anticipated in weekend three (it could happen), then The Meg should be able to take the top spot.
The Meg is a film that has been in development for two decades (color me surprised) and it’s finally getting its big moment this weekend. The movie follows Jason Statham, Rainn Wilson, and, in an effort to bolster its international appeal, Chinese star Li Bingbing as a group of scientists who attempt to stop the 75-foot beast from terrorizing a beach. It has all the hallmarks for cheesy entertainment but judging from the reviews (it’s currently rotten at 49% on Rotten Tomatoes) they suggest that the film takes itself a tad too seriously and doesn’t fully embrace its campiness. That could’ve ensured some decent box office but if the film thinks it’s better than the cheesy trailers suggests, it could turn off people who were planning on seeing it.
Sharks are all the rage at the box office lately. The Shallows, on a $17 million budget, grossed $55.1 million domestically and took in $119.1 million worldwide. The following summer, 47 Meters Down (which was initially planned to go straight to the home entertainment market) grossed $44.3 million a $5.5 million budget. That film released a teaser trailer for its sequel today which is scheduled for next summer so it looks like there is no stopping the money grabbing bite of our friends from the ocean.
The difference for The Meg, in comparison to those films, is the budget. I thought it was a typo until I read it on multiple sites but the film carries a staggering $150 million price tag, a figure it won’t come close to matching stateside. That being said, Warner Bros. isn’t too worried yet. The film is a co-production with China, meaning the studio is banking on big returns overseas from a simultaneous opening in the Middle Kingdom this weekend. This approach worked well for Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper which opened to a disappointing $24 million in the states but opened to $48 million in China. In the weeks since its release, the film has grossed $64 million domestically but $215 million abroad, which makes it look like a decent hit on paper.
I think The Meg should take the top spot this weekend but it will be determined by word of mouth over the weekend. I’m calling $22-25 million but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mission: Impossible snuck in if The Meg begins to faller.
Also opening this weekend is the critically acclaimed Spike Lee Joint, BlacKkKlansman . Jason Blum and Jordan Peele co-produced the Focus Features title, which tells the true story of black detective Ron Stallworth (John David Washington), who goes undercover — with the help of Jewish cop Flip Zimmerman (Adam Driver) — to infiltrate the Colorado Springs chapter of the Ku Klux Klan. Critics are calling the film a return to form for Spike Lee and reviews have been excellent with a fresh rating of 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. Spike Lee isn’t known for huge opening weekends (his biggest opening is 2006’s Inside Man which launched with $28 million) but this is the kind of film that builds over time due to word of mouth. I can see the film pulling in $8-10 million this weekend and it will be one to watch in the weeks moving forward.
Horror fans get the long in development, Slender Man, to satisfy their horror appetite until The Nun opens in September. The film had a rocky road to its release with scheduling issues and protests from the family of a girl who was stabbed by her friends in real life due to the legend of Slender Man, who thought the film was in poor taste (thankfully the young girl survived the attack). Sylvain White directed the supernatural thriller based on the internet legend of the boogeyman-like creature who traumatizes children. There are no reviews as of yet but I can’t imagine this one is any good but the horror genre is a hard one to predict at times. If the brand is well-known, the film can race out of the gate in a big way but sometimes the genre can stall. I’m seeing tracking on this film ranging from $8 million to as high as $16 million. That’s how unpredictable this genre can be. It’s PG-13 so it will attract younger audiences, especially on opening night. I’m calling about $10-12 million for the weekend before a quick fall off in the coming weeks.
Check back on Monday for the full box office results.
