The one sure thing this summer has been Disney. With so-so box office results during what should be one of the busiest moviegoing seasons of the year, Disney hasn’t disappointed with Avengers: Endgame (under the Marvel banner), Aladdin, & Toy Story 4. The mouse house is ready to rule the box office once again this weekend with the highly anticipated release of the live-action (photorealistic?) adaptation of The Lion King.
The Lion King has been tracking for a record July opening for a few weeks now. The current 3-day July opening record holder is 2011’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 with $169.1 million. Some tracking sources has The Lion King going as high as $180 million while the low end has been about $150 million. As we have seen this summer, box office tracking hasn’t been very reliable but Spider-Man: Far From Home was able to exceed the $150 million six-day tracking number to the sum of $185 million in six days. You would think that would make box office experts confident but Spider-Man was the exception and not the rule this summer since so many other titles failed to match their box office expectations.
The Lion King is likely to fall in the Spider-Man category because the brand is loved by so many around the world and it could be argued that it’s Disney’s most well-known property around the world, eclipsing the likes of Aladdin or Beauty and the Beast. The Lion King is the highest-grossing animated film of all-time and the Broadway show has earned about $9 billion worldwide since its debut. There is no denying the power of The Lion King and that will translate this weekend at the box office.
The one hiccup here has been the reviews. The film is currently rotten at 59% as of this writing and it’s honestly a score that has shocked a lot of people, especially considering the early word after the premiere was that this was a tour de force film that was likely to get wide critical acclaim. A lot of the reviews say it’s too much of a shot for shot remake that offers very little surprises, although almost all of the reviews praise it as a game-changer in terms of visuals. I think the gripe from critics might be the very reason why general moviegoers will love it. This film is all about nostalgia and familiarity. If it’s pretty much on par with the 1994 animated film, I think most will be happy and consider it a solid companion piece to go along with the original. Look no further than the live-action Aladdin from this summer which came in rotten at 57% but is one of the highest-grossing films of the summer and the year. The audience score on Aladdin is 97% and I honestly see The Lion King getting a similar split. I’m going to say The Lion King just barely steals the July opening weekend record with a gross of $170 million.
