After a bit of a lackluster weekend at the box office last week, this weekend should see a tick in business thanks to eight ladies who are sure to provide solid counterprogramming before blockbusters like The Incredibles 2 & Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom dominate in the coming weeks.
Ocean’s 8 plans on monopolizing on the female demographic which proves to come out when the right film calls their name. From Bad Moms to the recent example of Book Club, the female audience shows time and time again that they are largely underserved at the box office so they make their presence known when the project is worth it.
Ocean’s 8 is a spinoff of sorts of the Ocean’s franchise which starred George Clooney, Brad Pitt and a slew of other celebrities that once enjoyed name above the title success. In the new film, Sandra Bullock plays Debbie Ocean, sister of Clooney’s Danny, who spearheads a heist at the New York Met gala. Anne Hathaway, Cate Blanchett, Rihanna, Sarah Paulson, Helena Bonham Carter, Mindy Kaling and Awkwafina are also along for the ride.
Let’s get one thing out of the way: This doesn’t have the same stigma that the all-female Ghostbusters reboot faced when it was released. That film was destroyed by nostalgia obsessed fans who wouldn’t give it a chance even if it came with the cure for cancer. That film overcame some hurdles by being decently reviewed (73% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and opening higher than anticipated ($46 million). What it couldn’t overcome was the long-term backlash which didn’t make it truly breakout stateside beyond the opening weekend and it lacked much international appeal so it had issues justifying its oversized budget.
Ocean’s 8 differs because while the brand is recognizable, it doesn’t have the same level of nostalgia attached to it. The original Ocean’s films were very successful and played well internationally but I wouldn’t say that moviegoers consider them sacred. There is more leeway for Ocean’s to attempt the all-female angle and honestly, its timing couldn’t be better. Female empowerment in the industry is at an all-time high and the actresses in the film have done a damn good job showcasing their genuine affection for each other in all the press interviews leading up to the release.
Also working in its favor is that the audience for the franchise already skews heavily female. The original exit polls for the original films leaned 55% female and this entry could match that or even top it. The reasons for the female appeal had a lot to do with the two male leads but this time it will have to do with the female leads who their fans want to genuinely support.
The last crucial ingredient is good reviews. Ocean’s 8 is 78% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing which isn’t too far off from Ocean’s 11’s score (82%) and better than Ocean’s Twelve (54%) and Ocean’s Thirteen (70%). The reviews suggest the film is a fun time at the movies and delivers exactly what it promises.
Previews started Wednesday night in AMC locations and those ticket sales will be rolled into Thursday previews, which will be rolled into Friday’s opening number. The AMC previews were promoted as “Girl’s Night Out” and pushed for women to see it in groups, which could be the case for the whole weekend. The Gary Ross-directed film will play in 4,000 locations by Friday.
The film is budgeted at a rather modest $70 million and it’s bound to excel that stateside in the long run and its international prospects are bright given its chic, fashionista, stylized tone. Foreign grosses repped over 60% on each film from the original franchise. WB Int’l and Village Roadshow have averaged foreign ticket sales on the Soderbergh titles around $200 million+. Foreign openings are staggered for Ocean’s 8.
The film began tracking at $30 million and increased to $35 million this weekend but I’m not going to underestimate the female audience on this one. I’m predicting about $40 million for the opening.
The next new release is a tough one to call because horror films with excellent reviews from critics don’t always match up with audience expectations. That film in question is Hereditary, which is currently 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and being dubbed by many as one of the scariest films in recent memory. In the film, the matriarch of a family dies, and her daughter’s family begins to unravel cryptic and increasingly terrifying secrets about their ancestry. The horror film received raves at the Sundance Film Festival but sometimes horror films with great reviews tend to disappoint horror fans who have different ideas of what they consider scary (look no further than The Witch or It Comes At Night). I think it will play better than those films but I’m going to be modest with my prediction so I’m surprised if it breaks out over the weekend. I’m calling $11 million for the weekend.
The last new release is Hotel Artemis, starring Jodie Foster, Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella and Dave Bautista. The film is an artsy thriller set in an ER for criminals in a dystopian future Los Angeles. The reviews are actually decent at 71% fresh as of this writing but this feels like a film that is destined for cult status rather than box office success out the gate. I’m calling about $7-8 million for the weekend.
Check back Monday for the full box office results.
