This weekend Birds of Prey gets the weekend box office all to itself and the ladies are going to give us one hell of a reason to celebrate as they’re set for a stellar opening.
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn has Warner Bros. taking another unique approach with their standalone titles that have proven to be quite successful. After stumbling a bit while trying to build a cinematic universe to compete with Marvel, Warner Bros & the DC Universe hit their stride with Wonder Woman, took a step back with Justice League and then really found their groove with Aquaman, Shazam! & Joker. While I’m not a huge fan of Aquaman, the film cleared $1.1 billion at the worldwide box office and boosted the confidence of both Warner Bros. & DC. Shazam!, a lesser-known property for most moviegoers, also proved to be successful both critically (90% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) financially (grossing $364 million worldwide). Then there was Joker, a polarizing film with critics but certainly a hit at the box office and of this year’s awards season. The R-rated comic book endeavor, which cost $55 million to make, grossed a stellar $1 billion at the worldwide box office and it’s headed into this Sunday’s Oscar telecast with the most nominations, eleven in total.
Birds of Prey takes one of the elements of Suicide Squad that worked (Margot Robbie’s Harley Quinn) and surrounds her with a female ensemble of DC femme heroes including Black Canary, Huntress and Renee Montoya. Suicide Squad wasn’t well-received by critics and even fans were underwhelmed but its August 2016 release date made it one of the only players in town at the box office and that led it to a commercially successful worldwide take of $746.8 million ($325.1 million of that came from domestic grosses). Being the only game in town was likely not the only reason for its success. Although Suicide Squad was an ensemble piece, Margot Robbie’s take on Harley Quinn stood out and this led to Margot Robbie’s pitch to Warner Bros. and DC to bring Birds of Prey to life.
The timing for Birds of Prey is simply perfect. Margot Robbie is hotter than ever, coming off of high-profile films such as Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Bombshell, for which she is Oscar-nominated this Sunday. Robbie is becoming one of those box office draws that can dazzle critics and also launch mainstream fare that can attract plenty of moviegoers.
Birds of Prey is also being released in the wake of a girl power movement at the box office. Successes such as Wonder Woman and Captain Marvel have paved the way for films such as Birds of Prey and that looks to continue with this film and in May with Black Widow. Birds of Prey has a predominately female cast, was directed by a woman (Cathy Yan), and was also written by a woman (Christina Hodson). Margot Robbie also served as producer on the film and throughout the press tour, this has been heavily emphasized. This is a moment and the people behind the film want us to know it. In my opinion, it’s not being forced and it’s only indicating that women can make an impression in big franchise films as well, especially if they happen to be good.
Speaking of good, Birds of Prey looks like a winner in that area as well. Early word from test screenings was very positive and as of this writing, the film is 87% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. In terms of the recent DC adaptations, that only puts it behind Wonder Woman (93%) & Shazam (90%) and it’s well ahead of such titles like Batman v. Superman (28%), Suicide Squad (27%), Justice League (40%), Aquaman (66%) and Joker (68%). Even the DC titles with poor reviews debuted well so Birds of Prey is in a pretty sweet spot this weekend because it has the good reviews on its side.
The one caveat that could be an issue, and it’s one I’ve seen popping up a bit on social media, is that some are criticizing the film for trying to be a “woke”, “pro-feminist” film. These are comments being made by people who haven’t even seen the film yet but we all know how much reach a poor social response can have. My hope is that most will ignore the trolls but they can’t be counted out either.
Domestic advance tickets sales at major circuits are solid according to reports. Atom Tickets on its mobile app reported encouraging first-day sales on January 29, selling more tickets than Wonder Woman and Suicide Squad in the first 24 hours. Among DC films sold by Atom, Birds of Prey had the third-best first-day sales after Aquaman and Joker. Due to all these factors, I’m calling an opening weekend of $55-60 million, which is a stellar start considering the film cost a conservative $97 million to make.
