This was not the box office headline I was expecting to write this week. Terminator: Dark Fate was supposed to revitalize a franchise that was on life support by bringing back some key ingredients to make this all work again. You had James Cameron, writer and director of the first two films, back on board as a producer with a story that he was the mastermind behind. You also had Linda Hamilton returning as the iconic Sarah Connor for the first time since 1991’s Terminator 2: Judgment Day and she was teaming up with Arnold Schwarzenegger again. Schwarzenegger has revisited the franchise all but one time (Terminator: Salvation) but this film was wiping the slate clean of mediocre sequels by being a direct sequel to T2, meaning 3-5 could be forgotten.
Terminator: Dark Fate entered box office tracking with a potential $40-45 million opening. This was a figure that some believed to be on the low end considering the built-up hype surrounding the film. Imagine the crushing disappointment that Paramount/Skydance Media/Fox felt when the weekend numbers rolled in and the film didn’t even reach those tracking heights. Terminator: Dark Fate opened to an underwhelming $29 million and just like that, what should’ve been a resurgence for the franchise, now feels like a final nail in its coffin.
Dark Fate is reportedly seeing a loss of $100-120 million according to those in the know. The budget is said to be anywhere between $185-196 million, which seems like a ridiculous figure for a film in a franchise that hasn’t proven to show much box office clout since 2003. Overseas audiences didn’t embrace the latest Terminator chapter either. Although foreign grosses helped Terminator: Genisys after it stalled with $89.8 million stateside ($350.8 million was made overseas), it doesn’t look like Dark Fate is getting saved by other territories. China’s box office came in at $28.2 million, well below the $40-50 million that many expected. Overseas the film opened to $72.9 million in 48 territories, about 14% less than the $85 million some were seeing. Dark Fate only has Japan left to open in & reports say the film needs about $480 million+ worldwide to break-even at this point. Given the $101.9 million worldwide opening, Terminator isn’t seeing that figure unless it has some SERIOUS legs.
So what went wrong? The film had a nice reception at San Diego Comic-Con & many fans seemed to be behind the return of Linda Hamilton to the franchise as well as getting Arnold in the fold & having James Cameron on board in some capacity. Despite all this, I think the franchise is considered dead to most & while fans seemed to enjoy it (“B+” CinemaScore) I don’t think the franchise has the reach needed to score new fans. The franchise has been hampered with mediocre to awful sequels &, even if they made it a point to wipe that slate clean, I think some were reluctant to go all in. This should’ve been a triumph, much like Halloween was last year when it wiped their slate clean & brought back Jamie Lee Curtis. There’s definitely going to be a blame game here & honestly, that seems to be starting. Ahead of the opening over the weekend, Cameron made it public that he had many battles with director Tim Miller in the editing room, almost as if he was preparing for a fallout. It should be noted that while Cameron did conceive the story, he was only on as a producer & never set foot on set or met the new cast. James Cameron’s name carries clout if it’s clear that he’s fully invested as a writer and director but look no further than this year’s Alita: Battle Angel which touted his name as a producer but was a project that was directed by Robert Rodriguez. That film cost $170 million to make, before marketing spend, and only made $85.7 million stateside. Depending on who you ask, that film either did well enough with overseas grosses ($404.8 million worldwide) or still saw a loss when it was all said and done.
No one involved has really come out and stated what went wrong this weekend but this going to be another loss for Paramount after Gemini Man flopped a few weeks ago and reportedly resulted in a $75-80 million loss for the studio. At this rate, Terminator: Dark Fate is on track to maybe match the domestic gross of Genisys and, in all actuality, it may fall short of that in end. Definitely was not the outcome everyone involved was hoping for.
Joker continues its impressive box office run with a gross of $13.5 million for second place this weekend. The film dropped 29.9% compared to last weekend and continues a series of great holds that haven’t seen it display the typical drops that most comic book films see. The film has grossed $299.1 million at the domestic box office and is about $66 million shy of grossing $1 billion worldwide. Is it possible for Joker to see this milestone? It has bucked almost every box office trend that I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets the last laugh and joins that exclusive club.
In third we have Maleficent: Mistress of Evil with $13 million. The film comes down 32.4% weekend-to-weekend and to its credit, the drops for the sequel have been quite good despite the slower start when compared to the first film. The film has grossed $85.2 million domestically and it’s going to be rescued by a stellar overseas showing which now has it at $385.1 million worldwide and counting.
Opening above tracking in fourth is Harriet with $11.6 million. The film was tracking in the $8 million range so this has to count as a win for Focus Features, who released the film. Harriet isn’t going to be a huge hit but thanks to an “A+” CinemaScore and a better than expected start, I think it’s looking at the potential to make a modest profit.
Rounding out the top five is The Addams Family which grossed $8.2 million. The film dropped 30.9% which is considering that it got over Halloween on Thursday and still held well during the weekend. Last week I said $100 million might be out of the question but if it can see similar holds in the coming weeks, $100 million may actually be in its sights. The film has currently grossed $85 million at the domestic box office.
Check out the full top ten results below:
| Film | Total | % Change | Gross to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Onward | $10,601,952 | -72.9% | $60.3 |
| Bloodshot | $9,176,695 | NEW | $9.17 |
| I Still Believe | $9,103,614 | NEW | $9.10 |
| The Invisible Man | $5,890,805 | -61.1% | $64.3 |
| The Hunt | $5,304,455 | NEW | $5.3 |
| Sonic the Hedgehog | $2,522,584 | -67.3% | $145.7 |
| The Way Back | $2,356,115 | -71.2% | $13.3 |
| The Call of the Wild | $2,226,720 | -67.1% | $62 |
| Emma. | $1,295,215 | -73% | $9.9 |
| Bad Boys for Life | $1,102,208 | -63.5% | $204.2 |
