It’s September and that means it’s time to release a horror film, right? It might sound like a silly statement but the normally dead month has been a prime time to release a horror title and has proven to reap box dividends. This weekend The Nun is looking to make a name for itself and should provide another stellar example that September is just the right time for well-marketed horror.
Warner Bros. is stepping back into The Conjuring universe with The Nun, which represents the fifth entry in the very lucrative franchise. The Conjuring started it all back in 2013 when it became a hit that summer with a $41.8 million opening and a $137.4 million finish. After the success of that film, we got the first spinoff from the franchise in the form of Annabelle. Despite a rotten score of 29% on Rotten Tomatoes, the film opened well with $37.1 million and finished with $84.2 million domestically & $257 million worldwide. Keep in mind this as all on a $6.5 million budget.
The Conjuring universe continued in 2016 with The Conjuring 2 which opened to $40.4 million before finished with $102.4 million by the end of its run. The last film in the franchise was the prequel to Annabelle entitled Annabelle: Creation. That film received better reviews than the original film (70% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and fared even better at the box office with a $35 million opening and a gross of $102 million at the domestic box office. It even fared better internationally with a gross of $306.5 million worldwide. Needless to say, there is an audience for this series and they have proven time and time again that they will show up for it.
Total awareness, first choice, and unaided awareness on The Nun is best with females under 25 and it’s being reported that advance ticket sales are ahead of Annabelle: Creation and The Conjuring 2. Fandango has also said that sales on their platform are outpacing what A Quiet Place was registering before it opened and that film opened to $50.2 million.
Do I think The Nun will go that high? It’s possible but I think it’s going to fall a tad short. The film’s reviews aren’t stellar as of this writing (42% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) and even though it might be outpacing A Quiet Place on Fandango, that film benefitted from a full opening weekend of positive word of mouth and that isn’t likely to happen with The Nun.
That being said, I think it could hit a franchise-best on its opening weekend and since the film was cheap to make at $22 million, it’s going to be a hit by the time estimate roll out on Sunday. I’m predicting about $45 million for its opening weekend.
Jennifer Garner is returning to her action roots in Peppermint, after years and years of playing moms in almost every project she appears in. For those of you who have forgotten, Garner got her big break as an action heroine on Alias and this looks like a bit of a return to form for the actress. The film follows Riley North, who awakens from a coma after surviving a brutal attack that killed her husband and daughter. When the system shields the murderers from justice, Riley sets out to transform herself from citizen to urban guerrilla. Channeling frustration into motivation, the young widow spends years in hiding — honing her mind, body, and spirit to become an unstoppable force. Eluding the underworld, the police, and the FBI, Riley embarks on a deadly quest to deliver her own personal brand of punishment.
The film is directed by Pierre Morel, who helmed the first Taken, a film that Peppermint shares a similar DNA with. It could appeal to those looking for an action fix, especially those who want to see a woman kicking ass and taking names. The big detriment at play here is that the film doesn’t appear to be very good with a rotten score of 11% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. The reviews will likely hurt its long-term prospects but I think the trailers and TV spots have been good enough to secure a $13-16 million opening weekend.
Crazy Rich Asians will relinquish the top spot to The Nun after a three week run at number one but I’m still expecting the film to see a great hold this weekend as its established itself as a true word of mouth hit. Can it see another weekend in the $20 million range? It’s very possible but with increased competition, I’m going to predict about $18-20 million for the weekend.
Check back on Monday for the full box office results.
