Over two weeks ago, Unhinged opened to a $4 million respectable opening as movie theaters began to reopen after being shuttered since mid-March. Just this last weekend, The New Mutants finally opened in theaters after a three-year delay to a $7 million opening as even more theaters reopened. The upticks will continue with the wide release of Christopher Nolan’s Tenet this weekend but everyone will be looking at just how high can the mind-bending drama go with two key box office markets still out of play?
In Tenet’s favor is that 70% or about 420 AMC Theatre locations will be open by the time Tenet goes wide on Friday. Regal Cinemas and Cinemark are also expected to have locations up and going for Tenet’s arrival. Still out of play are New York and Los Angeles County, two of the biggest box office markets in the States but, showing that moviegoing is trying to reemerge in California, San Diego will have its theaters opening up this weekend. New Jersey, another sizable market, but not no the level of Los Angeles or New York, is said to be making mad dashes to have their theaters open in time after getting the go-ahead to reopen their screens at a limited capacity.
Since the box office is very unpredictable at the moment, Warner Bros. did not release box office projections for Tenet. It really is hard to predict where the film will go. With a majority of big box office hubs in California and New York shut down, as well as New Mexico, North Carolina, and parts of Washington, Florida, Michigan, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, it really is hard to say how much cash the film will actually pull in. What’s working in its favor was the surprisingly robust international launch last weekend which came in at $53.6 million from 40 overseas markets. New offshore debuts in China, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Nigeria, and Ghana this weekend are expected to pull in another $50 million on the international front. Not a bad start for a $200 million film. The overseas box office is well ahead of us because they’ve managed to get moviegoing on a socially distance distanced level up in running fairly smoothly while we’re just getting it off the ground here.
Warners has access to all the open screens it needs at an estimated count of 12,000 at 2,800+ theaters with the additional electricity of Imax, Dolby, 70MM, and Motion Seat premium tickets. Warner Bros. is withholding the film from certain drive-ins where indoor theater going is still prohibited which is a shame because drive-in moviegoing has kept the box office alive on life support but alive nonetheless. Remember, this isn’t all about the opening weekend for Warner Bros. in regards to Tenet. They have struck deals with exhibitors to keep the film running in theaters for a long time before it even hits PVOD so the goal is to make Tenet leg out rather than open huge. As for reviews, Tenet is fresh at 78% as of this writing and I suspect some expected a higher score but judging from the reviews, this film may not be for everyone although it is quite ambitious and features some spectacular action sequences. Christopher Nolan sells tickets during a healthy box office climate because he’s one of those directors that helms event movies. The films you need to see on the big screen. Even if Tenet isn’t on the high end of the normal reviews he gets, Nolan fans will see Tenet, even during a global pandemic. While Tenet won’t explode out of the gate with an Inception opening of $62.7 million, I still think $25 million is feasible, and keep in mind this is a holiday weekend. The film could go a bit higher depending on the holiday rush. Just remember, even though Tenet would’ve likely opened in the range of Inception if we weren’t living in a truly crazy time right now, this is a marathon, not a sprint. There is still room for Tenet to be successful. Even if it might take longer than it normally would.
