It’s going to be a tight race for number one with the top three (and possibly four) spots all potentially grossing in the $20 million plus range over the four day weekend.
Usually the four day weekend sees some kind of tentpole release to take advantage of the holiday weekend but this year we have impressive holdovers, limited releases going wide and smaller films that might get a slight boost from the weekend.
I’m going to call Hidden Figures for the top spot this weekend but it will be a VERY tight race with Patriots Day. I think Hidden Figures, which has seen some solid word of mouth, might benefit most from the MLK holiday and might see the biggest push on Monday to give it the first place finish. I predict about $22-23 million over the four days.
I think Patriots Day will open in a very close second after an impressive limited run that has brought in about $900,000 from only seven locations. The film has received an “A” CinemaScore and has a solid 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. The subject matter is a intense but the promos really push the angle of perseverance over evil which could be enough to get people in the seats to cheer the film on, which is based on the true event from the Boston Bombing Massacre. Mark Wahlberg also usually guarantees a decent opening weekend so I’m predicting about $21 million for the film over four days but I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets over Hidden Figures by just a tad.
Third place will be a holdover spot for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story which will probably also open fairly close to Patriots Day to possibly sneak into second if it gets a solid rush from kids being out of school on Monday. The film has dominated the holidays since its opening in December and despite giving up first place to Hidden Figures last weekend, it will still bring in some solid grosses over the four day weekend. I’m calling a $20 million weekend for Rogue One.
Also occupying the fourth spot will be holdover Sing, which has also been a top choice for moviegoers over the holidays. There is a slither of a chance that it could pull ahead of Rogue One, depending on the Monday rush but as of now I’m going to guess $19.5 million for the film but, again, I won’t be surprised if it grosses a bit more.
Fifth is going to be an honest toss up between Monster Trucks & La La Land. Monster Trucks would be in a solid position this weekend if it wasn’t for a huge budget and automatic $115 million write down from parent company, Viacom. Reviews won’t be great but that usually doesn’t hurt films like this. I’m thinking it will see about $11-12 million over the four days and I think La La Land will actually come out ahead on this one with about $13 million. The film won a record seven out of seven Golden Globes on Sunday and most moviegoers are continuing to sing its praises. The only thing that could make it come in below Monster Trucks is if the kid friendly film gets a little bit more of a bump on the Monday.
The other new openers (Live By Night, The Bye Bye Man, & Sleepless) will also be fairly close in range for their opening weekends. I would’ve given the Ben Affleck directed, Live By Night, more of a shot for a gross closer to the top four films but it’s currently rotten on Rotten Tomatoes at 32% and buzz isn’t as strong as it once was. The Bye Bye Man & Sleepless look like typical films dumped in January but the former film may have the slight advantage because it skews younger and opening a horror film on Friday the 13th should give it a bigger push on opening night. I think Live By Night leads this pack with $10 million, followed by The Bye Bye Man with $9 million and Sleepless closing it out with about $8 million.
Check back on Monday for the box office results to see if my predictions come close this week!
