It’s going to be the battle of the comic book movies as a reboot of the Hellboy franchise debuts this weekend against the second outing for Shazam!, which impressed with a number one finish last week. We also have three other wide openers that should perform decently but honestly, we’re just in the home stretch before Avengers: Endgame opens so these next couple of weekends will consist of all of these films trying to make money before they’re ignored for the event movie of the year.
Unless one of the new releases becomes a huge surprise hit, Shazam! shouldn’t have an issue maintaining the number one spot. Not only is it a comic book property with a bit of a fanbase but it’s also performing as a family film since it is also appealing to kids. Dumbo hasn’t captured their attention and while another animated film is opening this weekend, with decent reviews to boot, this will likely still be their top choice for viewing. As of Wednesday, it has earned $162 million worldwide, including $59 million at the domestic box office and that’s all on a $100 million budget. I’m expecting it to perform similarly to films such as Ant-Man in terms of its second-weekend drops which would make it ease about 56%. I’m calling a second weekend of $24-25 million, possibly higher should Saturday matinee showings show strong business in weekend two.
The Hellboy reboot is looking to claim second as Stranger Things’ David Harbour takes on the title role from Ron Perlman 15 years after he kicked off the franchise in Guillermo del Toro’s take on the red-skinned hero. Hellboy has been an interesting brand because it kicked off in 2004 when comic book movies didn’t always see massive openings but it did achieve a bit of a cult status after its modest performance. The original film opened to $23.1 million and had a final domestic tally of $59.6 million. Despite not matching its $66 million budget stateside, the film did gross $99.3 million worldwide and became a bigger deal on home video. This was enough to greenlight a sequel, Hellboy: The Golden Army. That film opened stronger than the first with $34.5 million but it also came out a week before The Dark Knight and that film eclipsed it quickly at the domestic box office. The Golden Army outperformed Hellboy with a gross of $75.9 million but given the bigger opening, many people thought it should’ve performed a bit better. Carrying an $85 million budget, Hellboy: The Golden Army did gross $160.3 million worldwide but its overall performance didn’t warrant another sequel with that creative team.
This new R-rated take on the franchise (the original films were PG-13) should appeal to some fanboys who want to see this sort of thing but this take on Hellboy seems like it’s really meant for hardcore fans while it may alienate casual moviegoers. Reviews are starting to trickle in and The Hollywood Reporter is wondering who exactly asked for it while Variety thinks it doesn’t really have much to say. I’m not sure if other reviews will go this way but if they do, Hellboy is going to have an issue resonating with those who aren’t familiar with the material. I’m predicting an opening weekend of about $16-18 million.
What could actually challenge Hellboy for second place would be a surprise performance for Little, a body-swap comedy about a tech mogul (Regina Hall) who transforms back into the 13-year-old version of herself (Marsai Martin) just before a major work presentation. Little is currently 54% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes but even the negative reviews are praising the performance of the leads, which also includes Insecure breakout Issa Rae. The film has received a lot of media attention because Marsai Martin, who is also on Black-ish, is an executive producer on the film and actually pitched the idea. This makes her the youngest executive producer of all-time and she has been making the rounds promoting the film. The film cost a slim $20 million to make and could be on its way to being a modest hit. I’m predicting about $15-18 million and if it can surge a bit, it might knock Hellboy down to third place this weekend.
Missing Link, latest stop-motion animated adventure from Laika, comes in with the best reviews of the new releases so far but stop-motion animation is a very niche subgenre and it doesn’t necessarily appeal to most casual moviegoers. This is the same studio that was behind Coraline and ParaNorman and it follows a myths and monsters investigator who sets off to prove the existence of a mythical creature called Mr. Link. With an 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, the film should see some attention but it’s not going to be the family film of choice this weekend. I’m predicting $8-10 million for the weekend.
Lastly, we have After, the YA romantic drama that centers on a college student who begins a relationship with the school’s resident bad boy. The film has some early buzz back when its first trailer premiered and because it’s based on a popular series of books but that has cooled considerably leading up to its release. The tracking on this one is pretty wide-ranging at the moment with some calling a weekend as low as $3 million and as high as $12 million. I never underestimate the young adult set since they do come out for things they really want to see. Five Feet Apart didn’t seem like a likely breakout hit but the $7 million film has grossed $41.9 million since opening nearly a month ago. This was driven solely by the target demo of young teenage girls and maybe After’s social media presence could allow it to fall in the mid-range of tracking. I’ll give it $7-8 million for the weekend.
