Black Panther, which has ruled the box office for five straight weekends, is going to give it its box office title to Pacific Rim: Uprising but the latter’s performance domestically is a much smaller story compared to its international prospects.
The original Pacific Rim, directed by recent Oscar winner Guillermo del Torro, was released in 2013 and opened to $37 million. The film tapped out at $101.8 million domestically which looked pretty grim compared to its massive $190 million budget but the film was a huge hit overseas. Worldwide the film grossed $411 million, $114 million from China alone, and this guaranteed that a sequel would be made.
The estimated budget for the sequel is between $155-175 million which is less than its predecessor. You’re probably wondering why put this much money into a sequel that is likely to see diminished returns in the states but international box office has only become more important since 2013 and China is an even bigger box office player. The sequel should really pop there and this may end up being a solid investment for the studio. The film wasn’t really meant to do significance business here so all eyes will be on its international haul moving forward. The film is rotten at 47% on Rotten Tomatoes but this is one of those films that is largely review-proof. If people want to see it, they will. I’m predicting about $25-29 million for the weekend.
That means Black Panther will come down to second but there is still money to be made and the film should hold well this weekend, especially if Pacific Rim: Uprising disappoints action fans. The Marvel film should see about $17 million this weekend.
Also not to be underestimated is Sherlock Gnomes, the sequel to the sleeper hit Gnomeo and Juliet. The first film quietly made nearly $100 million in the states and $94 million overseas. The film could surprise since it’s the only real option for kids right now and its 27% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes may not even matter since the kids want what the kids want. I still think Black Panther takes second but wouldn’t be surprised if this surges on Saturday to take the spot. Predicting about $16 million for the weekend.
Last weekend Tomb Raider had a bit of a soft opening and word of mouth has been mixed although it seems to lean to the positive side just a bit. It’s not going to hold incredibly well but it won’t crater either. I’m predicting about $12-13 million for the weekend.
Check back on Monday for the full box office results!
