Lara Croft is returning to theaters this weekend, with Alicia Vikander taking over for Angelina Jolie, but Black Panther is likely to still remain king of the weekend box office.
The original 2001 Lara Croft: Tomb Raider, based on the popular video game, was responsible for shooting Angelina Jolie to solo blockbuster stardom status following her Oscar win for Girl, Interrupted. In the summer of 2000, she co-starred in the Nicolas Cage summer action film, Gone in 60 Seconds which made $237.2 million, but the success of Tomb Raider allowed her to get future above the title action films such as Wanted and Salt. The film had a domestic opening of $47.7 million and took in $131.1 million domestically by the end of its run. It also minted a global take of $274.7 million on a $115 million budget. Some may forget that back in 2001, Jolie achieved the biggest opening of all time for a film led by a female protagonist, an extraordinary feat at the time. However, the sequel, 2003’s Lara Croft Tomb Raider: Cradle of Life quickly faltered off a $95 million production cost and a $65.6 million domestic, $156.5 million global box office.
Due to the popularity of a new game in the Tomb Raider series, a reboot of sorts was commissioned and leading the way this time is Oscar-winning actress Alicia Vikander. It’s interesting how Jolie and Vikander parallel each other in terms of taking on this character. Jolie gained more exposure after her Oscar win and Vikander steps into this role with Oscar cred herself. The question is, how bankable is Vikander or this series as a whole?
While Vikander is a respected younger actress, she isn’t a box office draw. She did have a supporting role in 2016’s Jason Bourne but she doesn’t have a resume that screams she can open a big action film. Also knee-capping the film a bit is that good reviews could’ve turned the tide here but at the moment they’re decidedly mixed (51% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing). The critics, even those who find the film mediocre, are praising Vikander but it remains to be seen if praise for a single performer can put butts in the seats. I think the film will fall short of the top spot and make about $25 million for the weekend.
This leaves Black Panther to take the top spot for the 5th weekend in a row. The last February releases to have achieved this feat were 1991’s Silence of the Lambs and 1992’s Wayne’s World. Unless Tomb Raider completely surprises, Black Panther should remain king with about $27-29 million for the weekend.
Expected to make a bit of an impact with its younger audience is Love, Simon. The film is a feature adaptation of Becky Albertalli YA novel Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda about a high-school senior’s coming out while trying to uncover the identity of his anonymous crush. The film is getting great notices from critics (88% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) and picked up an impressive $800,000 from 927 sneak previews last Saturday which indicates that the target audience is interested. I’m calling for a weekend of $10-11 million for the $17 million budgeted film.
Eyes will also be on the second weekend of A Wrinkle In Time which debuted to a “disappointing” $33.1 million last weekend. It’s still one of the top offerings for younger kids (with Peter Rabbit also quietly stacking up cash on its way to $100 million) so that should keep it relevant a tad longer. I’m calling for a weekend of $17 million for the film.
Check back on Monday for the full box office results!
