It’s another crowded August weekend at the box office with yet another five new releases crowding multiplexes. It’s clear that the studios dumped a lot of these films here the last two weekends just looking to see what would stick. Last weekend two of the five films rose to the occasion and this weekend it looks like a couple could do the same.
The race for number one is going to be interesting. Angry Birds 2 got off to early start on Tuesday with $2.6 million but was still behind the rest of the Tuesday pack of Hobbs & Shaw ($4.3 million), The Lion King ($4.1 million), Paramount’s Dora and the Lost City of Gold ($3.3 million), Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark ($3.2M). Essentially, leading up to the weekend, all of the weekday numbers for Angry Birds 2 will play like a preview day for the film and the real business will start this weekend. On the other side of that, the early start also hampers its box office just a bit. A similar thing happened with a much different film, Annabelle Creation, when it launched on Wednesday ahead of the weekend and started off well out of the gate but lost steam as the weekend progressed. The family audience could prop up Angry Birds 2 a bit but I think Angry Birds has about $16-18 million in the bank over three days which is a questionable start for a $65 million film. That’s relatively cheap but I imagine the domestic total doesn’t hold strong in the next few weeks so it will need international grosses to carry some of the weight. Angry Birds back in 2016 made 70% of its global $352.3 million from abroad.
The next two releases are the ones that have the most potential outside of Angry Birds 2. On one side we have Good Boys, a film that hopes and wants to be this summer’s Superbad. The film centers on three preteens doing R rated shenanigans, played by Jacob Tremblay of Room and Wonder fame, as well as unknowns Keith L. Williams and Brady Noon. Costars include Will Forte, Molly Gordon, and Lil Rel Howery. Good Boys actually has a Superbad connection with it coming from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s production company, who wrote that 2007 hit. The film has a solid 82% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes but I’m really questioning if the older crowd will want to see preteens behaving badly. The target audience is definitely into it but there will be a lot of sneaking in rather than tickets being sold for the film. It’s a strange thing because the potential to overperform is definitely there but I think a lot of it will be determined after its opening day. As of now, I’m predicting about $13-15 million for the weekend.
On the other side, we have the shark sequel, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged, the follow-up to the unanticipated summer success, 47 Meters Down, from two years ago. The first film opened to a stronger than anticipated $11.2 million and legged it out to final gross of $44.3 million. The road to the cinema was an interesting one for the first film. The film was a small $5 million production that was originally slated to be a VOD only release. After it was acquired by Entertainment Studios the film was given a theatrical release and it more than doubled its production budget out of the gate. The hope is that this can be recreated again as this film brings in a whole new cast including Sophie Nelisse, Corinne Foxx (daughter of Jamie), Brianne Tju, Sistine Stallone (daughter of Sly), John Corbett, and Nia Long. I don’t think it’s going to duplicate the success of the first film but I think interest is there to make the opening weekend come in a bit close. The film is fresh as of this writing with a 67% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s either going to fall slightly short of its predecessor or nearly match it with an opening of about $10-11 million.
The other new releases are aimed squarely at adults this weekend. First, we have Where’d You Go, Bernadette? based on the 2012 Maria Semple comedy novel. The film looks like a specialty release but the studio is going wide with this one. Everything about it screams potential Awards contender: It’s from acclaimed director Richard Linklater, who gave us the critically acclaimed and Oscar-nominated, Boyhood, five years ago. It stars Two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett in the title role and has a strong supporting cast including Billy Crudup, Kristin Wiig, Judy Greer, Laurence Fishburne, Steve Zahn, and Megan Mullaly. Despite all of these sure bets, the film is avoiding the festival and is going wide during a crowded weekend in mid-August. It makes me wonder if the studio knows they don’t have a true winner here and that’s why it’s essentially being dumped here. There is no Rotten Tomatoes score as of this writing (another troublesome sign) but I’m thinking the film pulls in about $5 million for the weekend.
The next release also looks like a specialty box office release and the stellar reviews the film is getting would make you think this would’ve been rolled out a bit slower. Blinded by the Light, a dramedy focusing on a teenager whose life is transformed by the music of Bruce Springsteen, began its string of glowing reviews when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year. The film is the best-reviewed film of the new releases at 92% fresh as of this writing and it’s a rare original idea that the industry really needs right now. I see shades of Yesterday from earlier this summer in this one but the same buzz, outside of critical circles, just isn’t there. I’m predicting about $4-4.5 million for the weekend.
