It’s going to be a pretty tight race for number one this weekend between two (or possibly three) movies this weekend but last weekend’s champ, Split, should still hold onto the top spot when it’s all said and done.
Despite the real-life controversy that has tarnished a bit of the film’s credibility, A Dog’s Purpose should still be Split’s toughest competition for number one. The video that was leaked by TMZ showed a German Shepherd being forced to go into churning water, ignited a lot of anger among the public but it has seemed to die down a bit. PETA still plans on protesting at several theaters in various locations but the heart of the film should still win over the average moviegoer. It holds a 35% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing but this is a movie that is a bit review proof and most of the reviews aren’t outright trashing the film either. The main issue is they seem to feel that it manipulates the audience to illicit emotions but this is the very reason why a lot of people want to see it. The film was tracking a bit higher before the video leak but I still think the film can pull $19-23 million for the weekend.
The Resident Evil franchise is coming to an end this weekend with Resident Evil: The Final Chapter. Demand for this franchise is up and down on the domestic front but internationally it has been a proven performer and it has turned the franchise into a billion dollar hit when worldwide grosses are factored in. The film has already grossed $35 million in Japan and has, even more, markets to open in as well. I don’t see the huge interest for this in the U.S. but hardcore fans will go out for it much like they did for Underworld: Blood Wars earlier this month. I predict about $15-18 million for this weekend.
The only other major release of significance is Gold but it’s looking to be anything but. The Matthew McConaughey film sits at 33% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and buzz around the film has been a bit low. I predict about $3 million for the weekend.
That leaves us with how Split will do in week two after its surprisingly huge $40 million opening. Horror thrillers tend to have steep drop offs in week two and word of mouth for this film isn’t bad but it’s in one camp or the other honestly. If A Dog’s Purpose debuts on the low end of expectations Split should stay on top and most likely will. It will all depend on how much the controversy hurts the dog film in the end. I predict $20-22 million for the film and a first place finish if A Dog’s Purpose taps out.
Check back on Monday for the box office results to see if it’s in line with my predictions.
