We have yet another weekend in November where a film that was supposed to light up the box office, underperformed. Lasy weekend it was Terminator: Dark Date which underwhelmed in its number one debut and now we have Doctor Sleep but at least Dark Fate finished first last weekend. Doctor Sleep has to settle for second place after Midway opens above expectations.
Midway finishes at number one with $17.9 million. The WWII drama was able to overcome tepid reviews (41% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) by tapping into the Veteran’s Day holiday which proved to work as Midway is expected to surge a little over $20 million once the holiday is factored in. The film is budgeted at an estimated $59.5 million so Midway would turn into a modest hit when it’s all said in done if overseas grosses are moderate enough. I really called this one wrong this weekend, at least in terms of where the film would finish but I guess I shouldn’t have second-guessed marketing that directly targeted a day where we honor our Veterans. Btw, audiences like this more than critics, giving it an “A” CinemaScore so it’s possible the film could have modest legs moving forward.
That means that Doctor Sleep settles for second place with $14.1 million and now we have to look into what might have gone wrong here and what the loss is going to be for Warner Bros. Various finance sources say that Doctor Sleep could lose around $20 million after all ancillaries, and that’s if the film grosses at least $100 million at the global box office. If the gross should come in at $80 million, the loss could be $30 million+. The film was tracking to open in the $25-30 million range which seemed likely due to decent reviews (74% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) & being a sequel to a well-known property (The Shining). The budget on Doctor Sleep is a reported $50 million+ & after opening to just $14.1 million & losing the top spot in a surprising upset from Midway, suddenly Doctor Sleep is in trouble.
Warner Bros. is reportedly baffled by the outcome & is running around trying to figure out what went wrong. Another Stephen King property, the Pet Sematary remake, was released in April & pulled in $112 million worldwide off of a budget of $21 million. That’s the result Warner Bros. wanted & Doctor Sleep was working with better reviews (Pet Sematary was Rotten at 57% with a 34% audience score) & Doctor Sleep received a good for horror “B+” CinemaScore versus the “C+” CinemaScore earned by Pet Sematary. Doctor Sleep also has a solid 90% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.
“Deadline” has given a few reasons why the film may have ended up in a coma this weekend. The film skipped Comic-Con this year which can be a solid platform to build interest. The 2 1/2 hour runtime has also been given as a reason, which typically doesn’t work for horror (although it didn’t defeat It: Chapter Two). Doctor Sleep also didn’t play well with young females & the Hispanic horror going demo, two demographics that drive the horror box office. The film definitely skews older & it seems like older audiences like it but one exit poll cited the under 25 crowd giving it a dismal 60%. I’m not sure Doctor Sleep will have good legs moving forward but most have pointed out The Shining wasn’t an out the gate hit when it came out in 1980 so maybe Doctor Sleep isn’t destined to find its real life until long after its box office run.
Overpeforming in third is the John Cena family comedy Playing With Fire which opened to $12.7 million. The film was tracking in the $8 million range so this has to be considered a win for Paramount Pictures who could use one after Terminator: Dark Fate cratered last weekend and full-on flatlined this weekend (more on that later). I honestly think the opening shows that John Cena is a name that can open a film, even if it’s not all that great (It’s 24% on Rotten Tomatoes) but audiences liked it more with a “B+” CinemaScore. The film is likely to be a modest hit which is something considering the marketing push seemed a little soft for the film.
Opening under expectations in fourth is Last Christmas with $11.4 million. I expected a higher start here and it’s possible that the holiday setting keeps it around for a bit but the “B-” CinemaScore is a bit concerning. I’m hearing that the film’s trailers are a tad misleading as this is more of a romantic drama rather than a rom-com and there have been a lot of complaints about the film’s big twist in the end. It may not be a total loss but I think all involved expected a bigger opening weekend.
Rounding out the top five is Terminator: Dark Fate which nosedives from first to fifth with $10.8 million, down a staggering 62.8% in the process. If the opening weekend looked like the franchise was buried, this just closed the casket and threw dirt on it. The film has grossed $48.4 million at the domestic box office and it’s about to become the lowest-grossing film of the franchise as it’s likely not going to even top the $89.9 million domestic gross of Terminator: Genisys. Internationally, the film added another $29.9 million this weekend for an overseas gross that now totals over $150 million and a global take that is just shy of $200 million. This weekend the film debuted in Japan where it brought in an estimated $6 million as China still leads all overseas markets with nearly $45 million. All of this would be great if the film didn’t cost as much as $196 million to make.
Check out the full top ten results below:
| Film | Total | % Change | Gross to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Onward | $10,601,952 | -72.9% | $60.3 |
| Bloodshot | $9,176,695 | NEW | $9.17 |
| I Still Believe | $9,103,614 | NEW | $9.10 |
| The Invisible Man | $5,890,805 | -61.1% | $64.3 |
| The Hunt | $5,304,455 | NEW | $5.3 |
| Sonic the Hedgehog | $2,522,584 | -67.3% | $145.7 |
| The Way Back | $2,356,115 | -71.2% | $13.3 |
| The Call of the Wild | $2,226,720 | -67.1% | $62 |
| Emma. | $1,295,215 | -73% | $9.9 |
| Bad Boys for Life | $1,102,208 | -63.5% | $204.2 |
