It has been a rough few weeks at the box office. We’ve had three summer event films open well below expectations (Godzilla: King of the Monsters, The Secret Life of Pets 2 & Dark Phoenix) and that is likely to continue with the release of Men In Black: International, which is probably going to rely heavily on overseas play to make up for its performance in the states.
If you would’ve told me that Pokemon: Detective Pikachu would’ve opened higher than those above those titles at the start of the summer movie season, I might’ve laughed of you. What we have learned the last few weeks is that lackluster reviews, a lack of interest & a lack of mass appeal have derailed some of these titles. Moviegoers are being more picky about what they will see in theaters and it’s becoming obvious that movies like Avengers: Endgame are the exception and not the rule.
Men In Black: International seems like a good idea and bad idea situation. On the one hand, it’s a rebooting of a familiar brand that was once very successful. The original three films starred Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones and played off their offbeat chemistry to some serious box office cash. Men in Black 1 and 2 opened over 5-day Independence Day holidays in 1997 and 2002. Thanks mostly to the appeal of Will Smith at the time, Men In Black was a solid grosser domestically and overseas with the film making $338.7 million worldwide ($250.6 million domestic). The second film suffered from diminished critical quality but it was still successful, grossing $251.4 million worldwide ($190.4 million domestic). The third film, which became a bit of a fan favorite, grossed $445 million worldwide in 2012 ($179 million domestic).
Also working in the new film’s favor is the appeal of its stars, Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson. They showcased solid chemistry in Thor: Ragnarok and the hope is that audiences will respond to their chemistry here. Hemsworth has a bit of international appeal thanks to playing Thor so Men In Black: International may light a bit of a spark overseas.
The bad side of things is that many don’t think this film is very necessary. Was anyone asking for a reboot of Men In Black? The third film wrapped things up nicely and it wasn’t a brand that was begging for a resurgence. Critics seem to agree as the Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 30% as of this writing but even the bad reviews say Hemsworth and Thompson shine in the film so this will be a big test of the star power and appeal. I’ve overestimated a lot of these would be blockbusters recently and I think this week I’m going to go on the low-end here and predict that Men In Black: International opens at about $35 million, which should be enough to claims the top spot. I’m hearing the budget is about $100-110 million which isn’t too high so a solid worldwide figure by the end of its run could make this a success.
Also opening this weekend is Shaft, a sequel of sorts to the 2000 reboot of the 1971 film. This new take actually has three generations of Shaft on display with original star Richard Roundtree appearing alongside Samuel L. Jackson, who starred in the 2000 film, and Jesse T. Usher, who joins the gang as Jackson’s son. Maybe I haven’t been watching a lot of TV lately but I’ve barely seen TV spots for this film and awareness seems a tad low but the expectation is that it should over-index to African American audiences, who are the prime demo here. The last movie, starring Samuel L. Jackson, opened to $21.7 million and legged out to $70.3 million stateside. The new film has a budget of $35 million and despite not so great reviews (33% rotten as of this writing), Shaft may score a decent enough opening and solid enough longterm business that it may end up being one of the better investments of the summer. I’m predicting about $17-20 million for the weekend.
Also expanding wide is Late Night, starring Mindy Kaling and Emma Thompson (the latter of which also appears in Men In Black: International this weekend). Last week, the film notched the best specialty theater average of the year to date with $61,500 for a weekend gross of $249,654 from just four locations. This is a $13 million Sundance acquisition for Amazon Studios and it’s the best reviewed wide release of the weekend at 83% fresh as of this writing but there is a question of if it can breakout to a mass audience. Mindy Kaling definitely has her appeal and this will be a testament of it. I’m predicting about $8 million for the weekend and maybe some legs in the weeks ahead if it can score solid word of mouth.
