Knives Out is set to bring comedy, mystery, and adult entertainment to the box office over the Thanksgiving box office frame and the film finally entered tracking with an opening that could indicate a solid start.
Knives Out entered box office tracking with a potential $22-25 million over the Wednesday through Sunday Thanksgiving period. The thing about the Thanksgiving box office is that the perception is it’s a lucrative frame but it’s more about the whole stretch rather than certain points of the weekend. Wednesday tends to be strong because it’s the day before Thanksgiving and it encourages families to get together for outings as well as friends who are back home catching up with the old crew. It’d a big day for going out but it stars to subside a bit on Thanksgiving because more families are home having the feast of their lives and not going out to the movies. The early part of the day on Friday is spent with people trying to catch whatever Black Friday sale they can get their hands on so that affects the Friday box office a bit while the Saturday gross plays more like the strong Wednesday launch before settling in with grosses that are typical once we arrive at the Sunday box office.
I say all this to say that if you’re worried that a five-day launch of $22-25 million isn’t strong enough, I’d rest easy. It’s very solid for the holiday frame, especially one that will be dealing with the incoming second weekend of Frozen 2, which launches the Friday prior to Thanksgiving. Knives Out also has a lot of goodwill in its favor as it’s a stellar 98% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with 103 reviews counted already. The film launched at the Toronto Film Festival and instantly became a crowd favorite, even sparking some potential Oscar buzz for the film which features a staggering ensemble cast that includes Jamie Lee Curtis, Toni Collette, Chris Evans, Don Johnson, Katherine Langford, Daniel Craig, Michael Shannon, LaKeith Stanfield & Christopher Plummer.
With good reviews, comes incentive for the older target audience to embrace Knives Out. The film is tracking well with the older crowd in a similar fashion of a past November release that featured a unique ensemble cast. Fox’s all-star ensemble Murder on the Orient Express, without any Oscar buzz (which Knives Out has), drew in upscale adults with a $28.6 million opening during the early part of November and $102.8 million final domestic and $352.8 million worldwide. Murder brought in the over-50 crowd at 50% with females at 59%. If the older crowd isn’t enough for Knives Out, it’s also tracking well with younger males, a key group that could’ve been brought in by director Rian Johnson himself due to films such as Looper and, believe it or not, Star Wars: The Last Jedi. No matter how polarizing the latter film is, it has made him an even bigger presence with younger male moviegoers and is a current example of how directing power can sometimes bring more box office clout than star power.
Another Thanksgiving release also entered tracking and that’s the film Queen & Slim, starring Daniel Kaluuya and Jodie Turner-Smith as a couple whose first date takes an unexpected turn when a cop pulls them over. The film enters tracking with $11 million over five days but many think it can surge higher because the film skews heavily towards African American audiences and that’s another demo that can’t be underestimated at the box office (look at how Harriet surged over its box office tracking last weekend). Queen & Slim was screened well in advance for the press and early word is that the film is quite good so solid reviews could also push the film higher than tracking indicates.
