December box office is almost here and today brings us a highly-anticipated that just entered box tracking this morning with a potentially promising debut.
Jumanji: The Next Level is looking at a potential opening of $40 Million+ when it opens on December 13. You might think that seems a bit soft but remember the December box office is very different and almost every day from mid-December until after the first of the year plays like a Friday or Saturday which leads to a lot of legs and inflated grosses. Movies also kickstart heavily on Christmas Day (a Wednesday this year) so don’t despair about the seemingly low tracking number and, since this is a family film, it could also likely overperform and debut over tracking.
Back in 2017, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle released in the immediate wake of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, opening on a Wednesday and playing straight into Christmas Day, with an opening weekend of $36.1 million, a 5-day of $52.8 million and 6-day including December 25 of $71.9 million. This time, it’s boldly going before Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker which opens on December 20 but the last Jumanji proved to be strong counter-programming in the wake of that film and showed that they two could both perform well and make serious money at the box office. The last film legged it out well into MLK weekend and was held in wide release for an amazing 14 weeks. The hope is that the sequel will replicate this success. Jumanji director Jake Kasdan returns with Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black and Karen Gillan with Danny DeVito, Danny Glover and Awkwafina along for the ride.
Here’s a fun little comparison for you: the stats on Jumanji: The Next Level is higher than Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse, which opened on a similar date, December 14 last year, to $35.3 million. Unaided awareness is also higher on Jumanji: The Next Level by 8 points next to Spider-Verse and First Choice by 10 points which is a positive sign that the film will best it $40 million tracking.
The Black Christmas remake also entered tracking today with a potential opening of $10-12 million. Not a bad start for a cheap Blumhouse release about a group of young sorority pledges who are stalked by a stranger during Christmas break. If it pops, it could turn into a modest hit with the young adult crowd if tracking holds. In unaided awareness, the film’s stats are close to Blumhouse’s Ma and Truth or Dare, which had $18 million+ debuts. Horror is hard to track during the holiday season. Back in 1996, Scream looked D.O.A when it opened to $6.3 million on December 20 but the film was a word of mouth hit, legging it out to a domestic take of $103 million. Scream 2 followed in 1997 with a $32.9 million opening on December 12 and turned that into a final gross of $101.3 million. On the other side of this, the 2006 Black Christmas remake stalled with an opening of $3.7 million when it launched on Christmas Day and only managed a final gross of $16.2 million. The idea is that horror can be good counterprogramming to the light-hearted fare but, as you can see, it can go either way.
Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell enters box office tracking with a potential opening of $8-12 million. The film, which is about the security guard at the 1996 Atlanta Summer Olympics who found the bomb, and then was accused of planting it, will appeal to the adult crowd and it’s a crowd that loves Eastwood. Last year, Eastwood had the crime drama thriller The Mule, which also opened on December 14, and opened to a $17.5 million 3-day and ultimately grossed $103.8 million. Eastwood also starred in that film and Richard Jewell doesn’t have huge stars attached but early reactions released today has thrown it in as a late Oscar contender so solid reviews and notices could also the film to resonate with the target demo.
